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德里积极交通的共同效益评估，估计使用非机动模式和避免近路 PM 暴露的意愿。

Co-Benefit Assessment of Active Transportation in Delhi, Estimating the Willingness to Use Nonmotorized Mode and Near-Roadway-Avoided PM Exposure.

机构信息

Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 816-8580, Japan.

Transdisciplinary Research and Education Center for Green Technologies, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 816-8580, Japan.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Nov 14;19(22):14974. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192214974.

DOI:10.3390/ijerph192214974
PMID:36429693
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9691015/
Abstract

This study aims to estimate the avoided mortalities and morbidities and related economic impacts due to adopting the nonmotorized transportation (NMT) policy in Delhi, India. To this aim, an integrated quantitative assessment framework is developed to estimate the expected environmental, health, and economic co-benefits from replacing personal motorized transport with NMT in Delhi, taking into account the inhabitants' willingness to use NMT (walking and cycling) mode. The willingness to accept NMT is estimated by conducting a cross-sectional survey in Delhi, which is further used to estimate the expected health benefits from both increased physical activity and near-roadway-avoided PM exposure in selected traffic areas in 11 major districts in Delhi. The value of a statistical life (VSL) and cost of illness methods are used to calculate the economic benefits of the avoided mortalities and morbidities from NMT in Delhi. The willingness assessment indicates that the average per capita time spent walking and cycling in Delhi is 11.054 and 2.255 min, respectively. The results from the application of the NMT in Delhi show the annual reduction in CO and PM to be 121.5 kilotons and 138.9 tons, respectively. The model estimates the expected co-benefits from increased physical activities and reduced PM exposure at 17,529 avoided cases of mortality with an associated savings of about USD 4870 million in Delhi.

摘要

本研究旨在估算印度德里采取非机动化交通（NMT）政策所避免的死亡人数和发病情况，以及相关的经济影响。为此，开发了一个综合的定量评估框架，以估计德里居民采用 NMT 替代个人机动化交通模式的预期环境、健康和经济协同效益，同时考虑到居民使用 NMT（步行和骑行）的意愿。通过在德里进行横断面调查来估计 NMT 的意愿接受程度，进一步用于估计在德里 11 个主要区的选定交通区域中，由于增加体力活动和避免近路 PM 暴露而产生的预期健康效益。使用生命价值（VSL）和疾病成本方法来计算德里 NMT 避免死亡和发病的经济效益。意愿评估表明，德里居民平均每人每天步行和骑行的时间分别为 11.054 分钟和 2.255 分钟。在德里实施 NMT 的结果表明，CO 和 PM 的年排放量分别减少了 121.5 千吨和 138.9 吨。该模型估计，由于增加体力活动和减少 PM 暴露，预计德里将避免 17529 例死亡病例，节省约 4.87 亿美元。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7182/9691015/83aff4e6b14a/ijerph-19-14974-g003.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7182/9691015/171e73e7e298/ijerph-19-14974-g0A7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7182/9691015/fdfb20a37fb2/ijerph-19-14974-g0A8.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7182/9691015/60fc178438d7/ijerph-19-14974-g0A9.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7182/9691015/54c4b1b885f0/ijerph-19-14974-g0A10.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7182/9691015/6a1e567b837d/ijerph-19-14974-g0A11.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7182/9691015/5fbb07488a21/ijerph-19-14974-g0A12.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7182/9691015/11f82a4ab254/ijerph-19-14974-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7182/9691015/ba022af94c63/ijerph-19-14974-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7182/9691015/83aff4e6b14a/ijerph-19-14974-g003.jpg

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