Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-2029, USA.
1579 Rhinelander Avenue, Bronx, NY, 10461, USA.
J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol. 2022 Jul;32(4):538-544. doi: 10.1038/s41370-022-00423-y. Epub 2022 Mar 14.
Climate mitigation policies that focus on the transportation sector yield near-term health co-benefits that could motivate policy action.
We quantified CO emission reductions as well as the air pollution and health benefits of urban transportation policies promoting electric vehicles (EV) and walking and bicycling in Seattle, Washington.
We compared a business-as-usual scenario projected to 2035 with intervention scenarios in which 35% of gasoline vehicles were switched to EV, and 50% of car trips less than 8 kilometers were replaced by walking or bicycling. We modeled changes in primary traffic-generated oxides of nitrogen (NO) and fine particulate matter (PM) as well as walking and bicycling activity, CO emissions from traffic, and fatal traffic injuries due to the transportation policy scenarios. We estimated the impacts of these changes on annual cases of asthma and premature mortality in the Seattle population.
Increasing the use of EV, walking, and bicycling is estimated to reduce CO emissions by 744 tons/year (30%) and lower annual average concentrations of primary traffic-generated NO and PM by 0.32 ppb (13%) and 0.08 μg/m (19%), respectively. In Seattle, the lower air pollutant concentrations, greater active transportation, and lower fatal traffic injuries would prevent 13 (95% CI: -1, 28), 49 (95% CI: 19, 71), and 5 (95% CI: 0, 14) premature deaths per year, respectively and 20 (95% CI: 8, 27) cases of asthma per year.
Moving towards cleaner vehicles and active transportation can reduce CO emissions, improve air quality, and population health. The resulting public health benefits provide important motivation for urban climate action plans.
Using key components of the health impact assessment framework, we quantify the environmental and health benefits of urban transportation policy scenarios that promote electric vehicle use and replace short car trips with walking and bicycling as compared with a business as usual scenario in 2035. Our findings demonstrate that transportation scenarios promoting cleaner vehicles and active transportation can reduce CO emissions, improve air quality, and increase physical activity levels, resulting in significant public health benefits.
以交通部门为重点的气候缓解政策带来了近期的健康协同效益，这可能会推动政策行动。
我们量化了减少 CO 排放以及促进电动汽车 (EV) 和步行和骑自行车的城市交通政策在华盛顿西雅图带来的空气污染和健康效益。
我们将一个预测到 2035 年的现状情景与干预情景进行了比较，在干预情景中，35%的汽油车被换成了电动汽车，8 公里以内的汽车出行中有 50%被步行或骑自行车取代。我们对主要交通产生的氮氧化物 (NO) 和细颗粒物 (PM) 的变化以及步行和骑自行车活动、交通 CO 排放以及因交通政策情景导致的交通致命伤害进行了建模。我们估计了这些变化对西雅图人口中哮喘和过早死亡的年度病例的影响。
增加电动汽车、步行和骑自行车的使用预计将减少每年 744 吨 CO 排放量（30%），并将主要交通产生的 NO 和 PM 的年平均浓度分别降低 0.32 个 ppb（13%）和 0.08 μg/m（19%）。在西雅图，较低的空气污染物浓度、更多的积极交通和较低的致命交通伤害将分别预防每年 13 例（95%CI：-1，28）、49 例（95%CI：19，71）和 5 例（95%CI：0，14）过早死亡，以及每年 20 例（95%CI：8，27）哮喘病例。
向更清洁的车辆和积极的交通方式转变可以减少 CO 排放，改善空气质量和人口健康。由此产生的公共卫生效益为城市气候行动计划提供了重要的动力。
我们使用健康影响评估框架的关键组成部分，量化了促进电动汽车使用和用步行和骑自行车取代短途汽车出行的城市交通政策情景与 2035 年的现状情景相比带来的环境和健康效益。我们的研究结果表明，促进更清洁车辆和积极交通的交通情景可以减少 CO 排放、改善空气质量和提高身体活动水平，从而带来显著的公共卫生效益。
