Yao Haona, Xu Pengpeng, Wang Yishan, Chen Rundong
School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400045, China.
School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400045, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Feb 1;327:116879. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.116879. Epub 2022 Nov 28.
The carbon emissions growth in the construction industry hinders the achievement of global carbon-neutral target, especially in China. Studies suggest that developing low-carbon technologies is an effective means of achieving the low-carbon transition (LCT) in the construction industry. However, these studies ignore the fact that the LCT is a complex and systemic issue that needs to consider the interaction of technical and non-technical factors. Thus, based on the socio-technical system transition theory, this study identified the influencing factors and constructs a dynamics model to simulate the dynamic changes of the LCT in China's construction industry under different scenarios. The results showed that multi-level factors coordinated to drive the LCT of the construction industry. Environmental factors played a weak role and the effectiveness of government intervention decreased with the transition process. On the contrary, technological and market factors were indispensable drivers and especially played a dominant role during the later stages of the transition. Finally, the LCT pathway of China's construction industry was proposed based on the results. These findings expand the boundary of theoretical research on industrial transition and provide a decision-making reference for the advancement of international carbon-neutral work.
建筑业的碳排放增长阻碍了全球碳中和目标的实现，在中国尤其如此。研究表明，发展低碳技术是实现建筑业低碳转型（LCT）的有效手段。然而，这些研究忽略了一个事实，即低碳转型是一个复杂的系统性问题，需要考虑技术和非技术因素的相互作用。因此，基于社会技术系统转型理论，本研究识别了影响因素，并构建了一个动力学模型，以模拟不同情景下中国建筑业低碳转型的动态变化。结果表明，多层次因素协同推动了建筑业的低碳转型。环境因素作用较弱，政府干预的有效性随着转型进程而降低。相反，技术和市场因素是不可或缺的驱动因素，尤其在转型后期发挥主导作用。最后，基于研究结果提出了中国建筑业的低碳转型路径。这些发现拓展了产业转型理论研究的边界，为推进国际碳中和工作提供了决策参考。
