Simeoni Christian, Furlan Elisa, Pham Hung Vuong, Critto Andrea, de Juan Silvia, Trégarot Ewan, Cornet Cindy C, Meesters Erik, Fonseca Catarina, Botelho Andrea Zita, Krause Torsten, N'Guetta Alicia, Cordova Fabiola Espinoza, Failler Pierre, Marcomini Antonio
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici and Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, CMCC@Ca'Foscari - Edificio Porta dell'Innovazione, 2nd floor - Via della Libertà, 12 - 30175 Venice, Italy.
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici and Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, CMCC@Ca'Foscari - Edificio Porta dell'Innovazione, 2nd floor - Via della Libertà, 12 - 30175 Venice, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Feb 25;861:160687. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160687. Epub 2022 Dec 5.
Cumulative impacts increasingly threaten marine and coastal ecosystems. To address this issue, the research community has invested efforts on designing and testing different methodological approaches and tools that apply cumulative impact appraisal schemes for a sound evaluation of the complex interactions and dynamics among multiple pressures affecting marine and coastal ecosystems. Through an iterative scientometric and systematic literature review, this paper provides the state of the art of cumulative impact assessment approaches and applications. It gives a specific attention to cutting-edge approaches that explore and model inter-relations among climatic and anthropogenic pressures, vulnerability and resilience of marine and coastal ecosystems to these pressures, and the resulting changes in ecosystem services flow. Despite recent advances in computer sciences and the rising availability of big data for environmental monitoring and management, this literature review evidenced that the implementation of advanced complex system methods for cumulative risk assessment remains limited. Moreover, experts have only recently started integrating ecosystem services flow into cumulative impact appraisal frameworks, but more as a general assessment endpoint within the overall evaluation process (e.g. changes in the bundle of ecosystem services against cumulative impacts). The review also highlights a lack of integrated approaches and complex tools able to frame, explain, and model spatio-temporal dynamics of marine and coastal ecosystems' response to multiple pressures, as required under relevant EU legislation (e.g., Water Framework and Marine Strategy Framework Directives). Progress in understanding cumulative impacts, exploiting the functionalities of more sophisticated machine learning-based approaches (e.g., big data integration), will support decision-makers in the achievement of environmental and sustainability objectives.
累积影响对海洋和沿海生态系统构成的威胁日益增大。为解决这一问题，研究界已致力于设计和测试不同的方法和工具，这些方法和工具采用累积影响评估方案，以便对影响海洋和沿海生态系统的多种压力之间的复杂相互作用和动态变化进行合理评估。通过反复的科学计量学和系统文献综述，本文介绍了累积影响评估方法及应用的现状。本文特别关注前沿方法，这些方法探索气候压力与人为压力之间的相互关系并建立模型，研究海洋和沿海生态系统对这些压力的脆弱性和恢复力，以及由此导致的生态系统服务流的变化。尽管计算机科学最近取得了进展，且用于环境监测和管理的大数据越来越容易获取，但本次文献综述表明，用于累积风险评估的先进复杂系统方法的应用仍然有限。此外，专家们直到最近才开始将生态系统服务流纳入累积影响评估框架，但更多是将其作为总体评估过程中的一个一般评估终点（例如，生态系统服务组合相对于累积影响的变化）。该综述还强调，缺乏能够根据欧盟相关立法（如《水框架指令》和《海洋战略框架指令》）的要求，对海洋和沿海生态系统对多种压力的响应的时空动态进行构建、解释和建模的综合方法和复杂工具。在理解累积影响方面取得进展，利用更复杂的基于机器学习的方法（如大数据整合）的功能，将有助于决策者实现环境和可持续发展目标。
