Health Impacts of High BMI in China: Terrible Present and Future.

Temporal trends and future expectations of health effects due to high body mass index (BMI) remain uncertain in China. The trends of high-BMI-related death in China were evaluated and predicted until 2040 using data and methods from the Global Burden of Disease study. The absolute numbers and age-standardized rates of death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were also calculated by age, gender, and cause. From 1990 to 2019, the high-BMI-related death percent, number and rate were all significantly increased in China, and death rate may exceed that globally in the next 10 years. High BMI caused more deaths and DALYs for men than for women, and the gap appeared to increase over time. In 2019, the burden of high BMI among ages 0−14 and 15−19 for children and adolescents were lower than that among adults (>20 years). The most common cause of death associated with high BMI was stroke, followed by ischemic heart disease and hypertensive heart disease. High BMI burden is a significant public health challenges in China. BMI surveillance and evaluation of evidence-based preventive strategies should be immediately initiated in Chinese residents due to the rapid increase in the burden of high BMI.