School of Statistics and Mathematics, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 4;19(23):16228. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192316228.
Advanced manufacturing is the pillar for building a modern economic system. We measured the level of high-quality development of manufacturing (HQDM) in China, and found that it has gone through the three stages of expansion, cultivation, and promotion. Spatially, it is characterized as "high in the east, low in the west" and "fast in the west, slow in the east", and presents non-equilibrium characteristics. To overcome the subjective bias introduced by artificially set clubs, we utilize a data-driven nonlinear time-varying factor model for clustering into four convergent clubs, where provinces with higher intensity of environmental regulation and environmental preference tend to move closer to the clubs with a higher level of HQDM. We reveal the convergence patterns and regional differences in HQDM, which provides a new perspective for determining the trends of high-quality manufacturing development, thus allowing for policy recommendations targeted at narrowing the manufacturing development gap.
先进制造业是构建现代经济体系的支柱。我们衡量了中国制造业高质量发展（HQDM）的水平，发现它经历了扩张、培育和推广三个阶段。从空间上看，其特征是“东高西低”和“西快东慢”，呈现非均衡特征。为了克服人为设定俱乐部带来的主观偏差，我们利用数据驱动的非线性时变因子模型进行聚类，将其分为四个收敛俱乐部。其中，环境监管和环境偏好强度较高的省份往往更倾向于向 HQDM 水平较高的俱乐部靠拢。我们揭示了 HQDM 的收敛模式和区域差异，为确定高质量制造业发展趋势提供了新视角，从而为缩小制造业发展差距提供了政策建议。
