Since environmental problems are becoming increasingly prominent, macro policies and social development have placed higher requirements on manufacturing enterprises to promote green transformation and upgrading (GTU) in China. Considering that different manufacturing enterprises choose different green technology innovation levels for GTU under environmental regulation, a game model between manufacturing enterprises and the government is constructed. The relationship between the green technology innovation level (GTIL) and the environmental regulation intensity is analyzed. Through numerical examples, the influences of environmental regulation and consumer preference on system decisions are further examined. Moreover, an econometric model is constructed to explore the influence that the environmental regulation exerts on the GTIL using panel data from the Chinese manufacturing industry. Our results show that the increase in environmental regulation intensity contributes to improving GTIL and promoting the GTU of manufacturing enterprises. Furthermore, as the environmental regulation is enhanced, the sales price decreases, benefiting consumers. Consumers' preference for high-GTIL products is conducive to GTU under environmental regulation. Empirical analysis shows that there is a U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation and the GTIL. Only when the intensity reaches a threshold can the environmental regulation be beneficial to improve the GTIL and promote the GTU of Chinese manufacturing enterprises.