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艰难之地与安全空间:避难所能否拯救鲑鱼免受气候变暖之害?

Tough places and safe spaces: Can refuges save salmon from a warming climate?

作者信息

Snyder Marcía N, Schumaker Nathan H, Dunham Jason B, Ebersole Joseph L, Keefer Matthew L, Halama Jonathan, Comeleo Randy L, Leinenbach Peter, Brookes Allen, Cope Ben, Wu Jennifer, Palmer John

机构信息

US Environmental Protection Agency, Pacific Ecological Systems Division, Corvallis, Oregon, USA.

US Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Corvallis, Oregon, USA.

出版信息

Ecosphere. 2022 Nov 9;13(11). doi: 10.1002/ecs2.4265.

Abstract

The importance of thermal refuges in a rapidly warming world is particularly evident for migratory species, where individuals encounter a wide range of conditions throughout their lives. In this study, we used a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model to evaluate the buffering potential of cold-water thermal refuges for anadromous salmon and trout ( spp.) migrating upstream through a warm river corridor that can expose individuals to physiologically stressful temperatures. We considered upstream migration in relation to migratory phenotypes that were defined in terms of migration timing, spawn timing, swim speed, and use of cold-water thermal refuges. Individuals with different migratory phenotypes migrated upstream through riverine corridors with variable availability of cold-water thermal refuges and mainstem temperatures. Use of cold-water refuges (CWRs) decreased accumulated sublethal exposures to physiologically stressful temperatures when measured in degree-days above 20, 21, and 22°C. The availability of CWRs was an order of magnitude more effective in lowering accumulated sublethal exposures under current and future mainstem temperatures for summer steelhead than fall Chinook Salmon. We considered two emergent model outcomes, survival and percent of available energy used, in relation to thermal heterogeneity and migratory phenotype. Mean percent energy loss attributed to future warmer mainstem temperatures was at least two times larger than the difference in energy used in simulations without CWRs for steelhead and salmon. We also found that loss of CWRs reduced the diversity of energy-conserving migratory phenotypes when we examined the variability in entry timing and travel time outside of CWRs in relation to energy loss. Energy-conserving phenotypic space contracted by 7%-23% when CWRs were unavailable under the current thermal regime. Our simulations suggest that, while CWRs do not entirely mitigate for stressful thermal exposures in mainstem rivers, these features are important for maintaining a diversity of migration phenotypes. Our study suggests that the maintenance of diverse portfolios of migratory phenotypes and cool- and cold-water refuges might be added to the suite of policies and management actions presently being deployed to improve the likelihood of Pacific salmonid persistence into a future characterized by climate change.

摘要

在迅速变暖的世界中,热庇护所对于洄游物种尤为重要,因为这些物种的个体在其一生中会遇到各种各样的环境条件。在本研究中,我们使用了一个基于个体的空间明确模拟模型,来评估冷水热庇护所对溯河产卵的鲑鱼和鳟鱼( 属)的缓冲潜力,这些鱼通过温暖的河流廊道向上游洄游,而这可能会使它们暴露在生理上有压力的温度下。我们考虑了与洄游表型相关的上游洄游,洄游表型是根据洄游时间、产卵时间、游泳速度和冷水热庇护所的使用情况来定义的。具有不同洄游表型的个体通过冷水热庇护所可用性和干流温度各不相同的河流廊道向上游洄游。当以20、21和22°C以上的度日数来衡量时,使用冷水庇护所(CWRs)减少了对生理上有压力温度的累积亚致死暴露。在当前和未来干流温度下,对于夏季虹鳟而言,冷水庇护所的可用性在降低累积亚致死暴露方面比秋季银大麻哈鱼有效一个数量级。我们考虑了两个模型的涌现结果,即生存率和可用能量的使用百分比,它们与热异质性和洄游表型有关。未来干流温度升高导致的平均能量损失百分比至少是虹鳟和大麻哈鱼在没有冷水庇护所的模拟中能量使用差异的两倍。我们还发现,当我们研究冷水庇护所之外的进入时间和旅行时间的变异性与能量损失的关系时,冷水庇护所的丧失减少了节能洄游表型的多样性。在当前热状况下没有冷水庇护所时,节能表型空间缩小了7%-23%。我们的模拟表明,虽然冷水庇护所不能完全减轻干流河流中压力性热暴露的影响,但这些特征对于维持洄游表型的多样性很重要。我们的研究表明,维持多样的洄游表型组合以及冷水和低温水庇护所,可能会被纳入目前正在实施的一系列政策和管理行动中,以提高太平洋鲑鱼在气候变化未来持续生存的可能性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f4a/9728623/801e49b1c7fe/nihms-1850533-f0001.jpg

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