Chen Jiao, Zhong Funing
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China.
Foods. 2022 Dec 14;11(24):4051. doi: 10.3390/foods11244051.
China has undergone rapid economic growth and diet transition over the past decades, along with environmental challenges. To help to achieve carbon peaking by 2030, this study investigates the time-variable diet-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) from 2000 to 2020 and examines the responses of food demands and diet-related GHGEs to an increase in per capita income and animal-based food prices. Based on the Almost Ideal Demand System model, addressing the problem of the endogeneity of food expenditure, we estimate the demand elasticities for six food groups and analyze their changing trends with time. Then, we perform two projections. One is to project the impacts of income growth on food demands and diet-related GHGEs, taking into consideration dynamic income elasticities as per capita income increases; the other is to project the effects of an increase in prices of different animal-based foods on food demands and diet-related GHGEs. Our results reveal that diet-related agricultural GHGEs show a continued increase in the short term, but the increased effect tends to decline gradually. The dominant driver of increased diet-related GHGEs is the increased consumption of beef, mutton, and pork. However, an increase in prices of beef and mutton; pork; and poultry and eggs can reduce diet-related GHGEs, while a decrease in the prices of aquatic products can also deliver a significant decrease in GHGEs. The results imply that policymakers should take an interest in the environmental impacts of diet transition and promote a more sustainable diet structure.
在过去几十年里，中国经济快速增长，饮食结构发生转变，同时也面临着环境挑战。为助力在2030年前实现碳达峰，本研究调查了2000年至2020年与饮食相关的随时间变化的温室气体排放（GHGEs），并考察了食品需求和与饮食相关的GHGEs对人均收入增长和动物性食品价格上涨的反应。基于几乎理想需求系统模型，解决食品支出的内生性问题，我们估计了六个食品组的需求弹性，并分析了它们随时间的变化趋势。然后，我们进行了两项预测。一是预测收入增长对食品需求和与饮食相关的GHGEs的影响，同时考虑到随着人均收入增加的动态收入弹性；另一个是预测不同动物性食品价格上涨对食品需求和与饮食相关的GHGEs的影响。我们的研究结果表明，与饮食相关的农业GHGEs在短期内持续增加，但增加的效应趋于逐渐下降。与饮食相关的GHGEs增加的主要驱动因素是牛肉、羊肉和猪肉消费量的增加。然而，牛肉和羊肉、猪肉以及禽蛋价格的上涨可以减少与饮食相关的GHGEs，而水产品价格的下降也可以使GHGEs显著减少。研究结果表明，政策制定者应关注饮食结构转变对环境的影响，并促进更可持续的饮食结构。
