Wu Y L, Zhu W Q, Yue X L, Li J, Zhang J H, Gong X D
Division of Sexually Transmitted Disease Epidemiology, Institute of Dermatology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Sexually Transmitted Disease Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210042, China.
Division of Sexually Transmitted Disease Epidemiology, Institute of Dermatology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Sexually Transmitted Disease Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210042, China School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2022 Dec 10;43(12):2015-2020. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220920-00794.
To analyze the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on syphilis case reporting in China, and provide evidence to evaluate the epidemic situation of syphilis and strengthen the prevention and control of syphilis during COVID-19 epidemic. The data were collected from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, National STD Management Information System, and the "nCov2019" R package of github website. The changes of reported cases of syphilis before and during COVID-19 epidemic in China were analyzed. Joinpoint regression model was established by using the reported case number of syphilis from 2010 to 2018, the data in 2019 was used for validation, and the number of syphilis cases in 2020 and 2021 was predicted. The impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the number of syphilis cases was evaluated with calculating the percentage error (PE) between actual number and predicted number of syphilis cases reported.The correlation between reported cases of syphilis and COVID-19 was analyzed by Spearman's correlation analysis. The softwares of Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 and SPSS 18.0 were used for statistical analysis. In 2020 and 2021, the reported cases of syphilis in China decreased significantly by 13.32% and 10.41%, respectively, compared with 2019 (before COVID-19 epidemic), and the reported cases of syphilis in 2021 increased by 3.36% compared with 2020. The reported cases of syphilis in 2020 and 2021 decreased by 17.95% and 20.41%, respectively, compared with predicted numbers. From January to March 2020, the reported monthly case number of syphilis was completely negatively correlated with the confirmed case number of COVID-19 (=-1.00, <0.001). In the provinces with different scales of COVID-19 epidemic, there was also a negative correlation between the monthly reported case number of syphilis and confirmed case number of COVID-19 (all <0.05). In China, the change of reported cases of syphilis was closely associated with COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 and 2021. Due to the influence of COVID-19 epidemic, the number of reported cases of syphilis decreased significantly, but it should not be thought that syphilis incidence will become a decline trend in the future. It is necessary to carefully and scientifically assess the changes in syphilis epidemic.
分析新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情对我国梅毒病例报告的影响,为评估梅毒疫情形势及加强COVID-19疫情期间梅毒防控提供依据。数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统的国家法定传染病报告系统、全国性病管理信息系统以及github网站的“nCov2019”R包。分析我国COVID-19疫情前后梅毒报告病例的变化情况。利用2010 - 2018年梅毒报告病例数建立Joinpoint回归模型,以2019年数据进行验证,并预测2020年和2021年梅毒病例数。通过计算梅毒实际报告病例数与预测病例数之间的百分比误差(PE)评估COVID-19疫情对梅毒病例数的影响。采用Spearman相关分析探讨梅毒报告病例数与COVID-19的相关性。使用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0和SPSS 18.0软件进行统计分析。2020年和2021年,我国梅毒报告病例数与2019年(COVID-19疫情前)相比分别显著下降13.32%和10.41%,且2021年梅毒报告病例数较2020年增加3.36%。2020年和2021年梅毒报告病例数与预测数相比分别下降17.95%和20.41%。2020年1 - 3月,梅毒月报告病例数与COVID-19确诊病例数完全呈负相关(=-1.00,<0.001)。在COVID-19疫情规模不同的省份,梅毒月报告病例数与COVID-19确诊病例数也呈负相关(均<0.05)。在我国,2020年和2021年梅毒报告病例数的变化与COVID-19疫情密切相关。受COVID-19疫情影响,梅毒报告病例数显著下降,但不应认为梅毒发病率未来会呈下降趋势。有必要认真、科学地评估梅毒疫情的变化。