Liu M, Xu H L, Yuan M, Liu Z R, Wu X Y, Zhang Y, Ma L Y, Gong L, Gan H, Liu W W, Tao S M, Zong Q, Du Y N, Tao F B
Department of Maternal, Child and Adolescent Health, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University/Population Health Across Life Cycle，Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China/National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Study on Abnormal Gametes and Reproductive Tract，Hefei 230032, China.
Center for Big Data Science in Health, School of Health Service Management, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Jun 6;54(6):630-633. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200221-00150.
We used the epidemic data of COVID-19 published on the official website of the municipal health commissions in Anhui province to map the spatiotemporal changes of confirmed cases, fit the epidemic situation by the population growth curve at different stages and analyze the epidemic situation in Anhui Province. It was found that the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was 156/100 000 by February 18, 2020 and the trend of COVID-19 epidemic declined after February 7 with a change from J-shaped curve to S-shaped curve. As the reporting time of cases might be 3-5 days later than the actual onset time, the number of new cases in Anhui province actually began to decline around February 2 to February 4, 2020.
我们利用安徽省各市卫生健康委官网发布的新冠肺炎疫情数据，绘制确诊病例的时空变化图，通过不同阶段的人口增长曲线拟合疫情态势，并对安徽省的疫情进行分析。研究发现，截至2020年2月18日，新冠肺炎累计发病率为156/10万，2月7日后新冠肺炎疫情呈下降趋势，曲线由J形转变为S形。由于病例报告时间可能比实际发病时间晚3 - 5天，安徽省新增病例实际于2020年2月2日至2月4日左右开始下降。
