Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Bogota, D.C, Colombia.
School of Industrial Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 Dec 30;17(12):e0270127. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270127. eCollection 2022.
Zika Virus (ZIKV) is a flavivirus that is transmitted predominantly by the Aedes species of mosquito, but also through sexual contact, blood transfusions, and congenitally from mother to child. Although approximately 80% of ZIKV infections are asymptomatic and typical symptoms are mild, multiple studies have demonstrated a causal link between ZIKV and severe diseases such as Microcephaly and Guillain Barré Syndrome. Two goals of this study are to improve ZIKV models by considering the spread dynamics of ZIKV as both a vector-borne and sexually transmitted disease, and also to approximate the degree of under-reporting. In order to accomplish these objectives, we propose a compartmental model that allows for the analysis of spread dynamics as both a vector-borne and sexually transmitted disease, and fit it to the ZIKV incidence reported to the National System of Public Health Surveillance in 27 municipalities of Colombia between January 1 2015 and December 31 2017. We demonstrate that our model can represent the infection patterns over this time period with high confidence. In addition, we argue that the degree of under-reporting is also well estimated. Using the model we assess potential viability of public health scenarios for mitigating disease spread and find that targeting the sexual pathway alone has negligible impact on overall spread, but if the proportion of risky sexual behavior increases then it may become important. Targeting mosquitoes remains the best approach of those considered. These results may be useful for public health organizations and governments to construct and implement suitable health policies and reduce the impact of the Zika outbreaks.
Zika 病毒（ZIKV）是一种黄病毒，主要通过伊蚊属的蚊子传播，但也可以通过性接触、输血和母婴传播。虽然大约 80%的 ZIKV 感染无症状，且典型症状轻微，但多项研究表明 ZIKV 与小头症和格林-巴利综合征等严重疾病之间存在因果关系。本研究的两个目标是通过考虑 ZIKV 作为虫媒传播和性传播疾病的传播动态来改进 ZIKV 模型，并估计漏报的程度。为了实现这些目标，我们提出了一个 compartmental 模型，该模型允许分析作为虫媒传播和性传播疾病的传播动态，并将其拟合到 2015 年 1 月 1 日至 2017 年 12 月 31 日期间哥伦比亚 27 个市向国家公共卫生监测系统报告的 ZIKV 发病率。我们证明我们的模型可以高度置信地表示这段时间内的感染模式。此外，我们认为漏报的程度也得到了很好的估计。使用该模型，我们评估了减轻疾病传播的公共卫生方案的潜在可行性，并发现仅针对性途径的干预措施对总体传播的影响微不足道，但如果危险性行为的比例增加，那么它可能变得重要。与所考虑的方法相比，针对蚊子仍然是最佳方法。这些结果可能对公共卫生组织和政府有用，以制定和实施适当的卫生政策，减少 Zika 疫情的影响。
