Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
J Med Virol. 2023 Feb;95(2):e28461. doi: 10.1002/jmv.28461.
One of the most consequential unknowns of the COVID-19 pandemic is the frequency at which vaccine boosting provides sufficient protection from infection. We quantified the statistical likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following different boosting schedules with messenger RNA (mRNA)-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech). We integrated anti-Spike IgG antibody optical densities with profiles of the waning of antibodies and corresponding probabilities of infection associated with coronavirus endemic transmission. Projecting antibody levels over time given boosting every 6 months, 1, 1.5, 2, or 3 years yielded respective probabilities of fending off infection over a 6-year span of >93%, 75%, 55%, 40%, and 24% (mRNA-1273) and >89%, 69%, 49%, 36%, and 23% (BNT162b2). Delaying the administration of updated boosters has bleak repercussions. It increases the probability of individual infection by SARS-CoV-2, and correspondingly, ongoing disease spread, prevalence, morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality. Instituting regular, population-wide booster vaccination updated to predominant variants has the potential to substantially forestall-and with global, widespread uptake, eliminate-COVID-19.
新冠疫情期间，一个极其重要的未知数是疫苗加强针能在多大程度上有效预防感染。本研究旨在量化不同 mRNA 疫苗（莫德纳的 mRNA-1273 和辉瑞的 BNT162b2）加强针接种方案下，突破性感染的发生频率。我们将抗尖峰蛋白 IgG 抗体的光密度与抗体衰减曲线和与新冠流行传播相关的感染概率相结合。结果表明，每 6 个月、1 年、1.5 年、2 年和 3 年加强针接种，mRNA-1273 疫苗在 6 年的时间内预防感染的概率分别为>93%、75%、55%、40%和 24%，BNT162b2 疫苗分别为>89%、69%、49%、36%和 23%。推迟接种更新的加强针会产生严重后果。它会增加个体感染 SARS-CoV-2 的概率，进而导致疾病持续传播、流行、发病、住院和死亡。定期为人群接种针对主要流行变异株的加强针，有可能显著预防（如果全球广泛接种，甚至可以消除）新冠疫情。
