Sewell Daniel K
Department of Biostatistics University of Iowa Iowa City Iowa USA.
J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat. 2022 Nov;71(5):1648-1662. doi: 10.1111/rssc.12594. Epub 2022 Sep 16.
Screening is a powerful tool for infection control, allowing for infectious individuals, whether they be symptomatic or asymptomatic, to be identified and isolated. The resource burden of regular and comprehensive screening can often be prohibitive, however. One such measure to address this is pooled testing, whereby groups of individuals are each given a composite test; should a group receive a positive diagnostic test result, those comprising the group are then tested individually. Infectious disease is spread through a transmission network, and this paper shows how assigning individuals to pools based on this underlying network can improve the efficiency of the pooled testing strategy, thereby reducing the resource burden. We designed a simulated annealing algorithm to improve the pooled testing efficiency as measured by the ratio of the expected number of correct classifications to the expected number of tests performed. We then evaluated our approach using an agent-based model designed to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a school setting. Our results suggest that our approach can decrease the number of tests required to regularly screen the student body, and that these reductions are quite robust to assigning pools based on partially observed or noisy versions of the network.
筛查是感染控制的有力工具,可识别并隔离有传染性的个体,无论其有无症状。然而,定期进行全面筛查的资源负担往往过高。解决这一问题的一项措施是混合检测,即给一组个体进行综合检测;如果一组检测结果呈阳性,则对该组中的个体进行单独检测。传染病通过传播网络传播,本文展示了如何根据这一潜在网络将个体分组,以提高混合检测策略的效率,从而减轻资源负担。我们设计了一种模拟退火算法,以提高混合检测效率,该效率通过正确分类的预期数量与执行的预期检测数量之比来衡量。然后,我们使用一个基于代理的模型评估了我们的方法,该模型旨在模拟新冠病毒在学校环境中的传播。我们的结果表明,我们的方法可以减少定期筛查学生群体所需的检测数量,并且这些减少对于基于部分观察到的或有噪声的网络版本进行分组具有很强的鲁棒性。