The accuracy of a computer based pharmacokinetic prediction method based on Bayesian analysis has been evaluated for an oral show release form of theophylline. 2. In 83 patients from seven centres 24 h serum theophylline concentration-time profiles were measured under a variety of circumstances. 3. Revised predictions of 24 h serum theophylline concentration profiles were generated by Bayesian analysis using single serum drug concentrations taken before, during and after the study days in different subgroups of those patients. Comparing the predicted and measured profiles the mean prediction error (bias) was 0.05 mg l-1 for peak concentrations and 0.04 mg l-1 for trough concentrations during once daily dosing. The corresponding root mean squared prediction errors (precision) were 2.59 and 1.17 mg l-1, respectively. 4. This accuracy is considered more than adequate for clinical purposes. 5. The technique can be used with a variety of other drugs and can form a valuable part of a routine therapeutic drug monitoring service.
