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2020 年欧洲杯对 COVID-19 传播的影响。

Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19.

机构信息

Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Am Faßberg 17, 37077, Göttingen, Germany.

Max Planck Institute for Physics, Föhringer Ring 6, 80805, München, Germany.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2023 Jan 18;14(1):122. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-35512-x.

Abstract

Large-scale events like the UEFA Euro 2020 football (soccer) championship offer a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of gatherings on the spread of COVID-19, as the number and dates of matches played by participating countries resembles a randomized study. Using Bayesian modeling and the gender imbalance in COVID-19 data, we attribute 840,000 (95% CI: [0.39M, 1.26M]) COVID-19 cases across 12 countries to the championship. The impact depends non-linearly on the initial incidence, the reproduction number R, and the number of matches played. The strongest effects are seen in Scotland and England, where as much as 10,000 primary cases per million inhabitants occur from championship-related gatherings. The average match-induced increase in R was 0.46 [0.18, 0.75] on match days, but important matches caused an increase as large as +3. Altogether, our results provide quantitative insights that help judge and mitigate the impact of large-scale events on pandemic spread.

摘要

大型活动,如 UEFA 欧洲足球锦标赛 2020 年(足球)锦标赛,提供了一个独特的机会来量化聚集对 COVID-19 传播的影响,因为参赛国家的比赛数量和日期类似于随机研究。我们使用贝叶斯模型和 COVID-19 数据中的性别失衡,将 12 个国家的 84 万(95%CI:[0.39M,1.26M])COVID-19 病例归因于锦标赛。影响与初始发病率、繁殖数 R 和比赛数量呈非线性关系。在苏格兰和英格兰,锦标赛相关聚集导致每百万居民多达 10000 例原发性病例,影响最大。平均每场比赛引起的 R 值增加了 0.46 [0.18,0.75],但重要的比赛引起的增加高达+3。总的来说,我们的结果提供了定量的见解,有助于判断和减轻大型活动对大流行传播的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/afc4/9849464/75f5f313561c/41467_2022_35512_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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