新冠疫情在被察觉之前的传播：意大利足球比赛观众人数的作用。
COVID-19 Diffusion Before Awareness: The Role of Football Match Attendance in Italy.
作者信息
Alfano Vincenzo
机构信息
Department of Economics, Westminster International University in Tashkent, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
Center for Economic Studies of Munich, CES-ifo, Munich, Germany.
出版信息
J Sports Econom. 2022 Jun;23(5):503-523. doi: 10.1177/15270025211067786.
Abstract
Anecdotal evidence suggests that football matches may have played a role in the spread of COVID-19 all over Europe. Nevertheless, from a scientific point of view, the impact of football matches on the spread of COVID-19 remains unclear. In this paper we study, via a quantitative analysis, the case of Italy, a country badly affected by COVID, and one where attending football matches is very popular. We consider the impact of matches played in January and February 2020 on the dynamic of the pandemic in March and April the same year. Our results, which consider all levels of Italian professional football, and the highest level of amateur football, show that matches played in January and February had an impact on the evolution of the pandemic in March and April. These results suggest that great care must be taken before considering re-opening stadia.
摘要
轶事证据表明，足球比赛可能在新冠病毒在欧洲的传播中起到了一定作用。然而，从科学角度来看，足球比赛对新冠病毒传播的影响仍不明确。在本文中，我们通过定量分析研究了意大利的情况，该国受新冠疫情影响严重，且观看足球比赛非常流行。我们考虑了2020年1月和2月举行的比赛对同年3月和4月疫情动态的影响。我们的研究结果涵盖了意大利职业足球的各个级别以及业余足球的最高级别，结果表明1月和2月举行的比赛对3月和4月疫情的演变产生了影响。这些结果表明，在考虑重新开放体育场之前必须格外谨慎。
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