A Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis of Advanced in Dongzhi County-A Case Study.

BACKGROUNDS

Advanced schistosomiasis is the late stage of schistosomiasis, seriously jeopardizing the quality of life or lifetime of infected people. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting mortality of patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica, taking Dongzhi County of China as a case study.

METHOD

Data of patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica were collected from Dongzhi Schistosomiasis Hospital from January 2019 to July 2022. Data of patients were randomly divided into a training set and validation set with a ratio of 7:3. Candidate variables, including survival outcomes, demographics, clinical features, laboratory examinations, and ultrasound examinations, were analyzed and selected by LASSO logistic regression for the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by concordance index (C-index), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). The calibration of the nomogram was evaluated by the calibration plots, while clinical benefit was evaluated by decision curve and clinical impact curve analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 628 patients were included in the final analysis. Atrophy of the right liver, creatinine, ascites level III, N-terminal procollagen III peptide, and high-density lipoprotein were selected as parameters for the nomogram model. The C-index, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of the nomogram were 0.97 (95% [CI]: [0.95-0.99]), 0.78 (95% [CI]: [0.64-0.87]), 0.97 (95% [CI]: [0.94-0.98]), 0.78 (95% [CI]: [0.64-0.87]), 0.97 (95% [CI]: [0.94-0.98]) in the training set; and 0.98 (95% [CI]: [0.94-0.99]), 0.86 (95% [CI]: [0.64-0.96]), 0.97 (95% [CI]: [0.93-0.99]), 0.79 (95% [CI]: [0.57-0.92]), 0.98 (95% [CI]: [0.94-0.99]) in the validation set, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the model fitted well between the prediction and actual observation in both the training set and validation set. The decision and the clinical impact curves showed that the nomogram had good clinical use for discriminating patients with high risk of death.

CONCLUSIONS

A nomogram was developed to predict prognosis of advanced schistosomiasis. It could guide clinical staff or policy makers to formulate intervention strategies or efficiently allocate resources against advanced schistosomiasis.