Tselebis Athanasios, Zabuliene Lina, Milionis Charalampos, Ilias Ioannis
Department of Psychiatry, "Sotiria" General Chest Diseases Hospital, Athens GR-11527, Greece.
Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius LT-03101, Lithuania.
World J Methodol. 2023 Jan 20;13(1):1-9. doi: 10.5662/wjm.v13.i1.1.
Recent publications from several countries have reported that more young people (mainly girls) are experiencing precocious puberty (PP)/menarche during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic compared to the past. This variation is attributed to the stress of confinement, lack of exercise, obesity and disturbed sleep patterns. A common feature of the relevant papers, however, is the small number of reported cases of PP. Studies have shown that searches for diseases on the internet also reflect to some extent the epidemiology of these diseases.
To estimate, through internet searches for PP, any changes in the epidemiology of PP.
We assessed in Google Trends searches for 21 PP-related terms in English internationally (which practically dwarf searches in other languages), in the years 2017-2021. Additionally, we assessed local searches for selected terms, in English and local languages, in countries where a rise in PP has been reported. Searches were collected in Relative Search Volumes format and analyzed using Kendall's Tau test, with a statistical significance threshold of < 0.05.
Internationally, searches for three PP-related terms showed no noticeable change over the study period, while searches for eight terms showed a decrease. An increase was found over time in searches for nine PP-related terms. Of the 17 searches in English and local languages, in countries where a rise in PP has been reported, 5 showed a significant increase over time.
Over the study period, more than half of the search terms showed little change or declined. The discrepancy between internet searches for PP and the reported increase in the literature is striking. It would be expected that a true increase in the incidence of PP would also be aptly reflected in Google trends. If our findings are valid, the literature may have been biased. The known secular trend of decreasing age of puberty may also have played a role.
来自几个国家的近期出版物报道，与过去相比，在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间，有更多的年轻人（主要是女孩）出现性早熟/月经初潮。这种变化归因于居家隔离的压力、缺乏运动、肥胖和睡眠模式紊乱。然而，相关论文的一个共同特点是报道的性早熟病例数量较少。研究表明，在互联网上搜索疾病也在一定程度上反映了这些疾病的流行病学情况。
通过在互联网上搜索性早熟，评估性早熟流行病学的任何变化。
我们在谷歌趋势中评估了2017 - 2021年期间国际上对21个与性早熟相关的英文术语的搜索情况（实际上使其他语言的搜索量相形见绌）。此外，我们还评估了在报告性早熟发生率上升的国家中，对选定术语的英文和当地语言的本地搜索情况。搜索数据以相对搜索量的格式收集，并使用肯德尔秩相关检验进行分析，统计显著性阈值为<0.05。
在国际上，对三个与性早熟相关的术语的搜索在研究期间没有明显变化，而对八个术语的搜索呈下降趋势。随着时间的推移，对九个与性早熟相关的术语的搜索有所增加。在报告性早熟发生率上升的国家中，对17个英文和当地语言的搜索中，有5个随着时间的推移显著增加。
在研究期间，超过一半的搜索词变化不大或呈下降趋势。互联网上对性早熟的搜索与文献中报道的增加之间的差异令人惊讶。预计性早熟发病率的真正增加也会在谷歌趋势中得到恰当反映。如果我们的发现是有效的，那么文献可能存在偏差。已知的青春期年龄下降的长期趋势也可能起到了一定作用。
