Emerg Infect Dis. 2023 Feb;29(2):351-359. doi: 10.3201/eid2902.220765.
The high economic impact and zoonotic potential of avian influenza call for detailed investigations of dispersal dynamics of epidemics. We integrated phylogeographic and epidemiologic analyses to investigate the dynamics of a low pathogenicity avian influenza (H3N1) epidemic that occurred in Belgium during 2019. Virus genomes from 104 clinical samples originating from 85% of affected farms were sequenced. A spatially explicit phylogeographic analysis confirmed a dominating northeast to southwest dispersal direction and a long-distance dispersal event linked to direct live animal transportation between farms. Spatiotemporal clustering, transport, and social contacts strongly correlated with the phylogeographic pattern of the epidemic. We detected only a limited association between wind direction and direction of viral lineage dispersal. Our results highlight the multifactorial nature of avian influenza epidemics and illustrate the use of genomic analyses of virus dispersal to complement epidemiologic and environmental data, improve knowledge of avian influenza epidemiologic dynamics, and enhance control strategies.
高经济影响和人畜共患病潜力禽流感呼吁详细调查的传播动态的疫情。我们整合了系统地理学和流行病学分析来调查低致病性禽流感(H3N1)在 2019 年在比利时发生的疫情的动态。从受影响的 85%农场的 104 个临床样本中分离出病毒基因组进行测序。一个空间明确的系统地理学分析证实了一个占主导地位的东北到西南的传播方向和一个远距离传播事件与农场之间直接的活体动物运输有关。时空聚类、运输和社会接触与疫情的系统地理学模式强烈相关。我们只检测到风向与病毒谱系传播方向之间的有限关联。我们的研究结果强调了禽流感疫情的多因素性质,并说明了利用病毒传播的基因组分析来补充流行病学和环境数据,提高对禽流感流行病学动态的认识,并加强控制策略。
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