Football Medicine and Science Department, Manchester United Football Club, Manchester, UK
Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
BMJ Open. 2023 Jan 24;13(1):e052772. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-052772.
In elite football, periodic health examination (PHE) may be useful for injury risk prediction.
To explore whether PHE-derived variables are prognostic factors for indirect muscle injuries (IMIs) in elite players.
Retrospective cohort study.
An English Premier League football club.
134 outfield elite male players, over 5 seasons (1 July 2013-19 May 2018).
The outcome was any time-loss, lower extremity index IMI (I-IMI). Prognostic associations were estimated using odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding statistical significance for 36 variables, derived from univariable and multivariable logistic regression models. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. Non-linear associations were explored using fractional polynomials.
During 317 participant-seasons, 138 I-IMIs were recorded. Univariable associations were determined for previous calf IMI frequency (OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.97), hamstring IMI frequency (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.09), if the most recent hamstring IMI occurred >12 months but <3 years prior to PHE (OR 2.95, 95% CI 1.51 to 5.73) and age (OR 1.12 per 1-year increase, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.18). Multivariable analyses showed that if a player's most recent previous hamstring IMI was >12 months but <3 years prior to PHE (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.11 to 4.53), this was the only variable with added prognostic value over and above age, which was a confirmed prognostic factor (OR 1.12 per 1-year increase, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.18). Allowing non-linear associations conferred no advantage over linear associations.
PHE has limited use for injury risk prediction. Most variables did not add prognostic value over and above age, other than if a player experienced a hamstring IMI >12 months but <3 years prior to PHE. However, the precision of this prognostic association should be confirmed in future.
NCT03782389.
在精英足球中，定期健康检查（PHE）可能有助于预测受伤风险。
探讨 PHE 衍生变量是否是精英球员间接肌肉损伤（IMI）的预后因素。
回顾性队列研究。
一家英超足球俱乐部。
134 名外场精英男性球员，5 个赛季（2013 年 7 月 1 日至 2018 年 5 月 19 日）。
结果为任何失时、下肢指数 IMI（I-IMI）。使用比值比（OR）和相应的统计学意义，从单变量和多变量逻辑回归模型中估计了 36 个变量的预后关联。使用多重插补处理缺失数据。使用分数多项式探索非线性关联。
在 317 名参与者赛季中，记录了 138 例 I-IMI。单变量关联确定了先前小腿 IMI 频率（OR 1.80，95%CI 1.09 至 2.97）、腘绳肌 IMI 频率（OR 1.56，95%CI 1.17 至 2.09）、如果最近的腘绳肌 IMI 发生在 PHE 前>12 个月但<3 年（OR 2.95，95%CI 1.51 至 5.73）和年龄（OR 每增加 1 岁 1.12，95%CI 1.06 至 1.18）。多变量分析表明，如果球员最近的前次腘绳肌 IMI 在 PHE 前>12 个月但<3 年（OR 2.24，95%CI 1.11 至 4.53），这是唯一比年龄更具预后价值的变量，而年龄是已确认的预后因素（OR 每增加 1 岁 1.12，95%CI 1.05 至 1.18）。允许非线性关联并没有比线性关联提供更多的优势。
PHE 在预测受伤风险方面的作用有限。除了球员在 PHE 前 12 个月但<3 年前经历过腘绳肌 IMI 之外，大多数变量并没有提供比年龄更大的预后价值。然而，应该在未来的研究中确认这一预后关联的准确性。
NCT03782389。
