School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, PR China.
Research Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, PR China.
PLoS One. 2023 Jan 26;18(1):e0279687. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0279687. eCollection 2023.
The contradiction between the limited service capacity of system and the explosive growth of demand has hampered the sustainable development of logistics system. Taking into account the structure of logistics system, this study introduces a system dynamics approach to explore the complex correlation and coupling structure of system, analyzes the multiple feedback loops and design the different scenarios. Results show that the validity and rationality of logistics system model, and the error percentage of GDP and logistics demand factors less than 6%. The influence of the investment in reverse logistics, logistics management, information and organizational management factor on the service quality of logistics system increases in turn. Additionally, adjustment of industrial structure has a significant impact on the investment in information management factor, and highway transportation plays a key role in influencing logistics energy consumption and carbon emissions indexes. The findings can provide valuable references and methodologies, as well as support for decision-making in the sustainable development of logistics system.
系统有限的服务能力与需求的爆炸式增长之间的矛盾，阻碍了物流系统的可持续发展。考虑到物流系统的结构，本研究引入系统动力学方法来探索系统的复杂关联和耦合结构，分析了多个反馈回路并设计了不同的情景。结果表明，物流系统模型的有效性和合理性，以及 GDP 和物流需求因素的误差百分比均小于 6%。逆向物流投资、物流管理、信息和组织管理因素对物流系统服务质量的影响依次增加。此外，产业结构调整对信息管理因素投资有显著影响，公路运输在影响物流能源消耗和碳排放指标方面起着关键作用。研究结果可为物流系统可持续发展的决策提供有价值的参考和方法支持。
