Knoke Thomas, Paul Carola, Gosling Elizabeth, Jarisch Isabelle, Mohr Johannes, Seidl Rupert
Institute of Forest Management, Department of Life Science Systems, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany.
Department of Forest Economics and Sustainable Land-Use Planning, University of Goettingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.
Environ Resour Econ (Dordr). 2023;84(2):343-381. doi: 10.1007/s10640-022-00719-5. Epub 2022 Sep 6.
Given the drastic changes in the environment, resilience is a key focus of ecosystem management. Yet, the quantification of the different dimensions of resilience remains challenging, particularly for long-lived systems such as forests. Here we present an analytical framework to study the economic resilience of different forest management systems, focusing on the rate of economic recovery after severe disturbance. Our framework quantifies the post-disturbance gain in the present value of a forest relative to a benchmark system as an indicator of economic resilience. Forest values and silvicultural interventions were determined endogenously from an optimization model and account for risks affecting tree survival. We consider the effects of differences in forest structure and tree growth post disturbance on economic resilience. We demonstrate our approach by comparing the economic resilience of continuous cover forestry against a clear fell system for typical conditions in Central Europe. Continuous cover forestry had both higher economic return and higher economic resilience than the clear fell system. The economic recovery from disturbance in the continuous cover system was between 18.2 and 51.5% faster than in the clear fell system, resulting in present value gains of between 1733 and 4535 € ha. The advantage of the continuous cover system increased with discount rate and stand age, and was driven by differences in both stand structure and economic return. We conclude that continuous cover systems can help to address the economic impacts of increasing disturbances in forest management.
鉴于环境的急剧变化，恢复力是生态系统管理的一个关键重点。然而，对恢复力不同维度的量化仍然具有挑战性，尤其是对于森林等长寿系统而言。在此，我们提出一个分析框架来研究不同森林管理系统的经济恢复力，重点关注严重干扰后的经济恢复率。我们的框架将森林相对于基准系统的扰动后现值增益量化为经济恢复力的一个指标。森林价值和造林干预措施由一个优化模型内生确定，并考虑影响树木存活的风险。我们考虑了干扰后森林结构和树木生长差异对经济恢复力的影响。我们通过比较中欧典型条件下连续覆盖林业与皆伐系统的经济恢复力来展示我们的方法。连续覆盖林业比皆伐系统具有更高的经济回报和更高的经济恢复力。连续覆盖系统从干扰中的经济恢复速度比皆伐系统快18.2%至51.5%，导致每公顷现值增益在1733至4535欧元之间。连续覆盖系统的优势随着贴现率和林分年龄的增加而增加，并且由林分结构和经济回报的差异驱动。我们得出结论，连续覆盖系统有助于应对森林管理中日益增加的干扰所带来的经济影响。
