Rodrigues Regina R, Shepherd Theodore G
Department of Oceanography, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, SC 88040-900, Brazil.
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK.
PNAS Nexus. 2022 Mar 2;1(1):pgac009. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac009. eCollection 2022 Mar.
There is a widely accepted gap between the production and use of climate information. It is also widely accepted that at least part of the reason for this situation lies in the challenge of bridging between what may be characterized as ''top-down'' approaches to climate information on the global scale, and local decision contexts, which necessarily take a ''bottom-up'' perspective, in which climate change is just one factor among many to consider. We here reflect on the insights provided in a different context-that of economics-by E.F. Schumacher in his celebrated book (1973), to see what light they might shed on this challenge, with a focus on climate-change science for adaptation. Schumacher asked how economics might look if it was structured "as if people mattered". We ask the same question of climate-change science, and find many parallels. One is the need to grapple with the complexity of local situations, which can be addressed by expressing climate knowledge in a conditional form. A second is the importance of simplicity when dealing with deep uncertainty, which can be addressed through the use of physical climate storylines. A third is the need to empower local communities to make sense of their own situation, which can be addressed by developing ''intermediate technologies'' that build trust and transparency. Much of climate-change science is necessarily big science. We argue that in order to make climate information useable for adaptation, it is also necessary to discover the beauty of smallness.
气候信息的生产与使用之间存在着一个被广泛认可的差距。人们也普遍认为，造成这种情况的至少部分原因在于，要弥合全球范围内可被视为“自上而下”的气候信息方法与地方决策背景之间的挑战，而地方决策背景必然采取“自下而上”的视角，在这种视角下，气候变化只是众多需要考虑的因素之一。我们在此反思E.F. 舒马赫在其著名著作（1973年）中在经济学这一不同背景下所提供的见解，看看它们能为这一挑战带来哪些启示，重点关注适应气候变化的科学。舒马赫曾问，如果经济学的构建方式是“仿佛人是重要的”，那么经济学将会是什么样子。我们对气候变化科学提出同样的问题，并发现许多相似之处。其一，需要应对当地情况的复杂性，这可以通过以条件形式表达气候知识来解决。其二，在应对深度不确定性时简单性的重要性，这可以通过使用物理气候情景来解决。其三，需要赋予当地社区理解自身情况的能力，这可以通过开发建立信任和透明度的“中间技术”来解决。许多气候变化科学必然是大型科学。我们认为，为了使气候信息可用于适应，还必须发现小规模的美妙之处。
