Duan Pinsheng, Goh Yang Miang, Zhou Jianliang
School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu 221116, China.
Department of the Built Environment, College of Design and Engineering, National University of Singapore, 4 Architecture Dr, Singapore 117566, Singapore.
Saf Sci. 2023 May;161:106076. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2023.106076. Epub 2023 Jan 23.
Many studies indicated that the COVID-19 pandemic had significant impacts on construction safety. However, the studies had differing views on whether the pandemic increased or decreased construction safety performance. Furthermore, past studies did not adopt a comparative time series approach to evaluate the impact of the pandemic on construction safety. Thus, this study explores the differences in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on construction safety in China and the United States. This study used SciNet to forecast the number of construction accidents without the pandemic. Subsequently, the forecast was compared with the actual number of accidents since the outbreak, and the analysis showed a reduced number of construction accidents during the pandemic. However, there were minimal changes and even a slight worsening of fatality rates. Moreover, the correlation analyses showed that the effect of the pandemic on construction safety was weak and lagging. Construction safety was significantly affected by the pandemic in China, and the impact is relatively rapid. In comparison, outbreaks did not have a major impact on construction safety in the U.S. in the early stage. Since the pandemic is still raging worldwide, this research helps governments or project stakeholders formulate more targeted and data-driven safety countermeasures to improve construction safety during the crisis. The study also helps nations respond to future pandemics and crises to prevent adverse effects on construction safety.
许多研究表明，新冠疫情对建筑安全产生了重大影响。然而，这些研究对于疫情是提高还是降低了建筑安全绩效存在不同观点。此外，以往的研究没有采用比较时间序列方法来评估疫情对建筑安全的影响。因此，本研究探讨了新冠疫情对中国和美国建筑安全影响的差异。本研究使用SciNet预测了没有疫情情况下的建筑事故数量。随后，将预测结果与疫情爆发以来的实际事故数量进行比较，分析表明疫情期间建筑事故数量有所减少。然而，死亡率变化极小，甚至略有恶化。此外，相关性分析表明，疫情对建筑安全的影响较弱且具有滞后性。在中国，建筑安全受到疫情的显著影响，且影响相对迅速。相比之下，疫情初期在美国对建筑安全没有重大影响。由于疫情仍在全球肆虐，本研究有助于政府或项目利益相关者制定更具针对性和数据驱动的安全对策，以在危机期间提高建筑安全。该研究还有助于各国应对未来的疫情和危机，防止对建筑安全产生不利影响。
