Qin Mingxing, Gao Xinyue, Feng Meichen, Jin Ning, Wang Chao, Cheng Wenjuan
College of Resources and Environment, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu, Shanxi, China.
College of Plant Protection, Shanxi Agricultural University, Taigu, Shanxi, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2023 Jan 12;13:1009577. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2022.1009577. eCollection 2022.
Naked oat (, is an important miscellaneous grain crop in China, which is rich in protein, amino acids, fat and soluble dietary fiber. The demand for functional foods is gradually increasing as living standards rise, and the output of minor cereals in China is increasing annually. The planting layout of naked oat is scattered and lacks planning, which seriously restricts the development of the naked oat industry. The increase in miscellaneous grain production will not only be impacted by cultivation methods and management techniques, but the potential impact of global climate change needs to be considered. North China is the main area for naked oat production, worldwide.
In this study, the potential distribution range of naked oat in North China was forecast based on historical distribution data and the Maxent model under climate change conditions. The performance of the model was relatively high.
The results indicated that the most suitable area for the potential geographic distribution of naked oat in North China was 27.89×104 km, including central and northeastern Shanxi, and northeastern and western Hebei and Beijing, gradually moving northward. The core suitable area increased, and the distribution of naked oat had an obvious regional response to climate warming; the main environmental factors affecting the potential geographic distribution were precipitation factor variables (precipitation seasonality (variation coefficient)), terrain factor variables (elevation) and temperature factor variables (temperature seasonality (Standard Deviation*100)).
In this study, the Maxent model was used to analyze and predict suitable areas for naked oat in North China, and the distribution of suitable areas was accurately divided, and the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of naked oat were identified. This research provides data support and theoretical support for the optimal planting zone of naked oat in North China.
裸燕麦（）是中国重要的杂粮作物，富含蛋白质、氨基酸、脂肪和可溶性膳食纤维。随着生活水平的提高，对功能性食品的需求逐渐增加，中国小杂粮产量逐年上升。裸燕麦种植布局分散，缺乏规划，严重制约了裸燕麦产业的发展。杂粮产量的增加不仅会受到栽培方法和管理技术的影响，还需要考虑全球气候变化的潜在影响。华北地区是世界范围内裸燕麦的主要产区。
本研究基于历史分布数据和Maxent模型，对气候变化条件下华北地区裸燕麦的潜在分布范围进行了预测。该模型的性能较高。
结果表明，华北地区裸燕麦潜在地理分布的最适宜面积为27.89×104平方公里，包括山西中部和东北部、河北东北部和西部以及北京，且有逐渐向北移动的趋势。核心适宜区面积增加，裸燕麦分布对气候变暖有明显的区域响应；影响潜在地理分布的主要环境因素为降水因子变量（降水季节性（变异系数））、地形因子变量（海拔）和温度因子变量（温度季节性（标准差*100））。
本研究利用Maxent模型对华北地区裸燕麦适宜区进行了分析和预测，准确划分了适宜区分布，并确定了影响裸燕麦分布的主要气候因素。本研究为华北地区裸燕麦最佳种植区提供了数据支持和理论支持。
