Bucquet D, Colvez A, Robine J M, Curtis S
INSERM, Unité 164, Le Vésinet.
Rev Epidemiol Sante Publique. 1987;35(3-4):323-9.
The aim of this paper is to present the preliminary results of a planning project in the area of health and social services for the elderly, which makes it possible to estimate the number of persons likely to seek help from such services at the administrative area levels with decisional powers. This involves identifying predictors of disability from raw data routinely available in the census and at various administrative area levels, the municipality being the preferred level. From the epidemiological data collected at the regional level, an indicator of disability has been constructed. Initially, those factors possibly associated with disabilities were identified by regrouping the variables in four dimensions (discriminant analysis): socio-economic, physical environment, human environment, local administrative area environment (district data from census, medical-social services offered in the area, ect.). Subsequently, a logistic regression made it feasible to calculate the coefficients attached to these predictors of disability. In our sample, sex, age and level of housing amenities in the dwelling place appear to be predictors of disability. The application of the coefficients obtained at the region level--by means of an epidemiological approach to distributions by sex, age and dwelling amenities characterizing a municipality or group of municipalities (territorial approach)--enabled us to estimate the number of persons 65 and over likely to seek help from home-assistance services at whatever administrative area level chosen. In certain of its quantitative aspects, this mixed approach (individual and area) helps in determining need, the first step in the planning process.
本文旨在展示一项针对老年人健康与社会服务领域规划项目的初步成果，该成果能够估算出在具有决策权的行政区层面可能寻求此类服务帮助的人数。这涉及从人口普查及不同行政区层面（首选市一级）常规可得的原始数据中识别残疾预测因素。基于在区域层面收集的流行病学数据，构建了一个残疾指标。最初，通过将变量按四个维度重新分组（判别分析）来识别可能与残疾相关的因素：社会经济、物质环境、人文环境、当地行政区环境（人口普查的地区数据、该地区提供的医疗社会服务等）。随后，通过逻辑回归计算出这些残疾预测因素的系数。在我们的样本中，性别、年龄以及居住场所的住房设施水平似乎是残疾的预测因素。通过一种流行病学方法，将在区域层面获得的系数应用于按性别、年龄和居住设施分布特征来描述一个市或一组市（地域方法），使我们能够估算出在任何选定的行政区层面65岁及以上可能寻求居家援助服务帮助的人数。在其某些定量方面，这种混合方法（个体和区域）有助于确定需求，这是规划过程的第一步。
