College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing, China.
College of Petrochemical Technology, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2023 Feb 2;18(2):e0279346. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0279346. eCollection 2023.
Emergency response has an important impact on the mitigation of the domino effects. However, consequence analysis of the domino effect often ignores emergency response due to its complexity and uncertainty. In this paper, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) is adopted to evaluate the reliability of emergency response process. On this basis, using Bayesian Network (BN) model, the domino effect under the influence of emergency response is modeled. Based on the total duration of the above-mentioned emergency response process to determine the consequences of domino effect under the action of safety barriers. The application of the approach has been demonstrated by an illustrative case study. The results show that the probability of domino effect is reduced by an order of magnitude when active barriers, passive barriers and emergency response are considered together. This work can provide relevant basis for formulating safety protection measures in chemical process industry.
应急响应对缓解多米诺效应具有重要影响。然而，由于多米诺效应的复杂性和不确定性，其后果分析往往忽略了应急响应。本文采用模糊层次分析法（FAHP）来评估应急响应过程的可靠性。在此基础上，利用贝叶斯网络（BN）模型，对受应急响应影响的多米诺效应进行建模。基于上述应急响应过程的总持续时间，确定安全屏障作用下多米诺效应的后果。通过一个实例研究验证了该方法的应用。结果表明，当同时考虑主动防护、被动防护和应急响应时，多米诺效应的概率降低了一个数量级。这项工作可以为化工过程工业制定安全保护措施提供相关依据。
