Babus Ana, Das Sanmay, Lee SangMok
Department of Economics, Washington University in St. Louis, United States of America.
Department of Computer Science, George Mason University, United States of America.
Econ Lett. 2023 Mar;224:111008. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111008. Epub 2023 Jan 31.
We develop a simple model of vaccine prioritization for a potential pandemic. We illustrate how the model applies to the case of Covid-19, using an early 2020 primitive estimate of occupation-based exposure risks and age-based infection fatality rates. Even based on primitive estimates the vaccine distribution strongly emphasizes age-based mortality risk rather than occupation-based exposure risk. Among others, our result suggests that 50-year-old food-processing workers and 60-year-old financial advisors should have been equally prioritized. We also find that the priorities minimally change when certain populations' exposure risks are altered by targeted stay-at-home orders or call-up of essential workers.
我们针对潜在的大流行情况开发了一个简单的疫苗优先排序模型。我们举例说明了该模型如何应用于新冠疫情的情况，使用了2020年初基于职业的暴露风险和基于年龄的感染死亡率的初步估计。即使基于初步估计，疫苗分配也强烈强调基于年龄的死亡风险而非基于职业的暴露风险。其中，我们的结果表明，50岁的食品加工工人和60岁的金融顾问应被同等优先考虑。我们还发现，当某些人群的暴露风险因针对性的居家令或关键岗位工作人员的征召而改变时，优先顺序的变化极小。
