Hayakawa Kazunobu
Bangkok Research Center, Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO Bangkok Thailand.
Dev Econ. 2022 Dec;60(4):206-227. doi: 10.1111/deve.12332. Epub 2022 Oct 19.
This paper examines how COVID-19 vaccinations change international trade. We analyze monthly level trade data from January 2020 to March 2022 that cover the bilateral exports from 40 reporting countries to 220 partner countries. Our findings can be summarized as follows. On average, the effects of vaccination rates in importing and exporting countries on exports were found to be insignificant. When considering the income level, we also did not find significant effects of vaccination rates in high- and low-income countries on exports. In contrast, the rise of vaccination rates in low-income countries significantly increased their exports though no significant increase in exports was detected when vaccination rates rose in high-income countries. These results imply that since low-income countries are mainly engaged in labor-intensive industries, the relaxation of lockdown orders (i.e., movement and gathering restrictions) driven by the rise of vaccination rates plays a crucial role in production activities in low-income countries.
本文研究了新冠疫苗接种如何改变国际贸易。我们分析了2020年1月至2022年3月的月度贸易数据，这些数据涵盖了40个报告国向220个伙伴国的双边出口情况。我们的研究结果总结如下。平均而言，进口国和出口国的疫苗接种率对出口的影响不显著。在考虑收入水平时，我们也没有发现高收入和低收入国家的疫苗接种率对出口有显著影响。相比之下，低收入国家疫苗接种率的上升显著增加了它们的出口，而高收入国家疫苗接种率上升时，出口没有显著增加。这些结果意味着，由于低收入国家主要从事劳动密集型产业，疫苗接种率上升推动的封锁令放松（即行动和集会限制）在低收入国家的生产活动中起着关键作用。
