Gao Xinyue, Dai Junhu, Tao Zexing, Shahzad Khurram, Wang Huanjiong
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (CAS), Beijing, China.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2023 Jan 19;14:1040758. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1040758. eCollection 2023.
Both biotic and abiotic factors restrict changes in autumn phenology, yet their effects remain ambiguous, which hinders the accurate prediction of phenology under future climate change. In this study, based on the phenological records of 135 tree species at ten sites in China during 1979-2018, we first investigated the effects of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, insolation and wind speed) and spring phenology on interannual changes in leaf coloring date (LCD) with the partial correlation analysis, and assessed the relative importance of phylogeny and native climate to LCD differences among species by using multivariate regression and phylogenetic eigenvector regression approach. The results showed that the effects of climate factors on interannual changes in LCD were more significant than spring phenology. In general, temperature played a more important role in cold regions (e.g. the northeast region), while the control of insolation on LCD was stronger in the warmer and wetter regions (e.g. the north, east and southwest regions). In addition, the effects of precipitation and wind speed were more evident in arid regions (e.g. the northwest region). We also found considerable effects of both native climate and phylogeny on the LCD differences among species, despite the contribution of native climate being almost 2~5 times greater than that of the phylogeny. Our findings confirmed and quantified the combined effects of climate, spring phenology and phylogeny on the autumn phenology of plants, which could help better understand the driving factors and influencing mechanism of plant phenology and provide a reference for the calibration and optimization of phenological models.
生物和非生物因素都限制了秋季物候的变化，但其影响仍不明确，这阻碍了对未来气候变化下物候的准确预测。在本研究中，基于1979 - 2018年中国十个地点135种树种的物候记录，我们首先采用偏相关分析研究了气候因素（温度、降水、日照和风速）和春季物候对叶片变色日期（LCD）年际变化的影响，并使用多元回归和系统发育特征向量回归方法评估了系统发育和原生气候对物种间LCD差异的相对重要性。结果表明，气候因素对LCD年际变化的影响比春季物候更为显著。一般来说，温度在寒冷地区（如东北地区）起更重要的作用，而在温暖湿润地区（如北方、东部和西南地区），日照对LCD的控制更强。此外，降水和风速的影响在干旱地区（如西北地区）更为明显。我们还发现原生气候和系统发育对物种间的LCD差异都有相当大的影响，尽管原生气候的贡献几乎比系统发育大2至5倍。我们的研究结果证实并量化了气候、春季物候和系统发育对植物秋季物候的综合影响，这有助于更好地理解植物物候的驱动因素和影响机制，并为物候模型的校准和优化提供参考。
