Department of Anesthesiology, The Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Department of Physiology, The Zhongshan Medical School of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Transpl Int. 2023 Jan 19;36:10887. doi: 10.3389/ti.2023.10887. eCollection 2023.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) after liver transplantation (LT) is a common complication, and its development is thought to be multifactorial. We aimed to investigate potential risk factors and build a model to identify high-risk patients. A total of 199 LT patients were enrolled and each patient data was collected from the electronic medical records. Our primary outcome was postoperative AKI as diagnosed and classified by the KDIGO criteria. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operating algorithm and multivariate logistic regression were utilized to select factors and construct the model. Discrimination and calibration were used to estimate the model performance. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to assess the clinical application value. Five variables were identified as independent predictors for post-LT AKI, including whole blood serum lymphocyte count, RBC count, serum sodium, insulin dosage and anhepatic phase urine volume. The nomogram model showed excellent discrimination with an AUC of 0.817 (95% CI: 0.758-0.876) in the training set. The DCA showed that at a threshold probability between 1% and 70%, using this model clinically may add more benefit. In conclusion, we developed an easy-to-use tool to calculate the risk of post-LT AKI. This model may help clinicians identify high-risk patients.
肝移植术后急性肾损伤(AKI)是一种常见的并发症,其发生机制被认为是多因素的。我们旨在探讨潜在的危险因素,并建立一个模型来识别高危患者。共纳入 199 例肝移植患者,每位患者的数据均从电子病历中收集。我们的主要结局是术后 AKI,其诊断和分类采用 KDIGO 标准。采用最小绝对收缩和选择操作算法(LASSO)和多因素逻辑回归来选择因素并构建模型。采用判别和校准来评估模型性能。决策曲线分析(DCA)用于评估模型的临床应用价值。确定了五个变量为肝移植后 AKI 的独立预测因素,包括全血血清淋巴细胞计数、红细胞计数、血清钠、胰岛素剂量和无肝期尿量。在训练集中,列线图模型的判别能力优异,AUC 为 0.817(95%CI:0.758-0.876)。DCA 显示,在阈值概率为 1%至 70%之间,临床使用该模型可能会带来更多获益。总之,我们开发了一种易于使用的工具来计算肝移植后 AKI 的风险。该模型有助于临床医生识别高危患者。