Ericson Spencer R, Denison Stephanie, Turri John, Friedman Ori
Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Canada.
Department of Philosophy and Cognitive Science Program, University of Waterloo, Canada.
Cogn Psychol. 2023 Mar;141:101551. doi: 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2023.101551. Epub 2023 Feb 9.
How does probability affect attributions of intentionality? In five experiments (total N = 1410), we provide evidence for a probability raising account holding that people are more likely to see the outcome of an agent's action as intentional if the agent does something to increase the odds of that outcome. Experiment 1 found that high probability without probability raising does not suffice for strong attributions of intentionality. Participants were more likely to conclude a girl intentionally obtained a desired gumball from a single gumball machine when it offered favorable odds for getting that kind of gumball compared with when it offered poor odds, but their attributions of intentionality were lukewarm. Experiments 2 and 3 then found stronger attributions of intentionality when the girl raised her probability of success by choosing to use machines offering favorable odds over machines offering poor odds. Finally, Experiments 4 and 5 examined whether these effects of probability raising might reduce to consideration of agents' beliefs and expectations. We found that although these mental states do matter, probability raising matters too-people attribute intentional actions to agents who increase their odds of success, rather than to agents who merely become convinced that success is likely. We discuss the implications of these findings for claims that control and skill contribute to attributions of intentional action.
概率如何影响对意向性的归因？在五项实验（总样本量N = 1410）中，我们为一种概率提升观点提供了证据，该观点认为，如果一个主体采取某种行为来提高某一结果出现的几率，那么人们就更有可能将该主体行为的结果视为有意为之。实验1发现，仅有高概率而没有概率提升不足以有力地归因于意向性。与从一台吐出那种口香糖几率很低的单一口香糖售卖机中获取相比，当一台口香糖售卖机吐出某类口香糖的几率很高时，参与者更有可能认为一个女孩是有意从这台机器中得到了想要的口香糖，但是他们对意向性的归因并不强烈。实验2和实验3随后发现，当女孩通过选择使用吐出几率高的机器而非吐出几率低的机器来提高自己成功的概率时，对意向性的归因更强。最后，实验4和实验5考察了概率提升的这些效应是否可能简化为对主体信念和期望的考量。我们发现，尽管这些心理状态确实重要，但概率提升也很重要——人们会将有意为之的行为归因于那些提高了自己成功几率的主体，而非仅仅是那些确信成功可能性很大的主体。我们讨论了这些发现对于控制和技能有助于对有意行为进行归因这一观点的意义。
