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基于分解的兔舍环境变量多步预测模型

Decomposition-Based Multi-Step Forecasting Model for the Environmental Variables of Rabbit Houses.

作者信息

Ji Ronghua, Shi Shanyi, Liu Zhongying, Wu Zhonghong

机构信息

College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China.

State Key Laboratory of Animal Nutrition, College of Animal Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China.

出版信息

Animals (Basel). 2023 Feb 3;13(3):546. doi: 10.3390/ani13030546.

Abstract

To improve prediction accuracy and provide sufficient time to control decision-making, a decomposition-based multi-step forecasting model for rabbit house environmental variables is proposed. Traditional forecasting methods for rabbit house environmental parameters perform poorly because the coupling relationship between sequences is ignored. Using the STL algorithm, the proposed model first decomposes the non-stationary time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components and then predicts separately based on the characteristics of each component. LSTM and Informer are used to predict the trend and residual components, respectively. The aforementioned two predicted values are added together with the seasonal component to obtain the final predicted value. The most important environmental variables in a rabbit house are temperature, humidity, and carbon dioxide concentration. The experimental results show that the encoder and decoder input sequence lengths in the Informer model have a significant impact on the model's performance. The rabbit house environment's multivariate correlation time series can be effectively predicted in a multi-input and single-output mode. The temperature and humidity prediction improved significantly, but the carbon dioxide concentration did not. Because of the effective extraction of the coupling relationship among the correlated time series, the proposed model can perfectly perform multivariate multi-step prediction of non-stationary time series.

摘要

为提高预测准确性并提供足够时间进行控制决策,提出了一种基于分解的兔舍环境变量多步预测模型。兔舍环境参数的传统预测方法效果不佳,因为忽略了序列之间的耦合关系。所提出的模型使用STL算法首先将非平稳时间序列分解为趋势、季节和残差分量,然后根据每个分量的特征分别进行预测。分别使用长短期记忆网络(LSTM)和Informer预测趋势和残差分量。将上述两个预测值与季节分量相加得到最终预测值。兔舍中最重要的环境变量是温度、湿度和二氧化碳浓度。实验结果表明,Informer模型中的编码器和解码器输入序列长度对模型性能有显著影响。兔舍环境的多变量相关时间序列可以在多输入单输出模式下得到有效预测。温度和湿度预测有显著改善,但二氧化碳浓度预测没有。由于有效提取了相关时间序列之间的耦合关系,所提出的模型能够完美地对非平稳时间序列进行多变量多步预测。

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