Institute of Marine Economy and Management, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China.
School of Management Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Sep 3;19(17):11058. doi: 10.3390/ijerph191711058.
In response to global climate change, China made a commitment about carbon emissions at the UN General Assembly. It will strive to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. To help China successfully meet its carbon emissions targets this study examines the impact of environmental regulation on carbon emissions from a different perspective. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China as samples, this paper discusses the direct and indirect effect of environmental regulation on carbon emissions and explains the indirect process through four transmission paths: energy consumption structure, industrial structure, technological innovation, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The empirical results show that the direct effect of environmental regulation on carbon emissions presents an inverted U-shaped curve, it means that when the intensity level of environmental regulation is low, it mainly shows the green paradox effect, and with the continuous tightening of environmental laws, it turns into a forced emission reduction on carbon emissions. In addition, we found that under the constraint of environmental regulation conditions, the coal-based energy consumption is still the leading cause of carbon emissions; environmental regulations have contributed to the upgrading of industrial structure and technological advance, which indirectly play a positive role in carbon emission reduction. However, environmental regulation restrains the spillover effect and capital accumulation effect of FDI, which brings a specific degree of hindrance to technological progress and economic development, and is not conducive to carbon emission reduction. Therefore, we have made the following recommendations: China should make reasonable use of environmental policies to regulate carbon emissions according to the situation of each region, optimize the energy structure and increase the proportion of clean energy use, and improve the technology level of related industries to reduce carbon emissions by innovation.
应对全球气候变化，中国在联合国大会上作出碳达峰、碳中和承诺。为助力中国顺利实现碳减排目标，本研究从不同视角考察环境规制对碳排放的影响。利用中国 30 个省份的面板数据作为样本，本文讨论了环境规制对碳排放的直接和间接影响，并通过能源消费结构、产业结构、技术创新和外商直接投资（FDI）四条传导路径解释了间接过程。实证结果表明，环境规制对碳排放的直接效应呈现出倒 U 型曲线，即当环境规制强度较低时，主要表现为绿色悖论效应，随着环境法规的不断收紧，转而对碳排放产生强制性减排作用。此外，我们发现，在环境规制的约束条件下，煤炭基能源消费仍是碳排放的首要原因；环境规制有助于产业结构升级和技术进步，这在间接减排方面发挥了积极作用。然而，环境规制抑制了 FDI 的溢出效应和资本积累效应，对技术进步和经济发展产生了一定程度的阻碍，不利于碳减排。因此，我们提出以下建议：中国应根据各地区情况合理利用环境政策来调节碳排放，优化能源结构，增加清洁能源使用比例，提高相关产业技术水平，通过创新减少碳排放。
