Cheng Yu-Kai, Dai Hai-Xia, Zhang Yun-Hui, Qiao Li-Ping, Ma Ying-Ge, An Jing-Yu, Huang Cheng
Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Formation and Prevention of Urban Air Pollution Complex, Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2023 Feb 8;44(2):719-729. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202203053.
In recent years, the ozone (O) concentration has showed a rising trend in China, becoming second only to PM as an important factor affecting air quality. To grasp the spatial-temporal variations characteristics of O and the associated health impacts during the implementation of the three-year plan on defending the blue sky in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, data collected from 210 monitoring stations in the YRD from 2017 to 2020 were analyzed using the global Moran's index and Getis-Ord index methods, and the associated health benefits of reduced O exposure were evaluated using the health risk and environmental value assessment methods. The results showed that during the study period, the interquartile range (IQR) of the annual average O concentration and that of the warm season both presented a declining trend. The average O concentrations in both warm and cold seasons showed a similar spatial distribution pattern, with the northern part exhibiting the higher concentrations and the southern part showing the lower concentrations. Furthermore, the O concentrations in the warm season were characterized by high O concentrations clustering in the northern and central part of the region. The proportion of the population exposure to annual average O concentration over 160 μg·m decreased from 72.3% in 2017 to 34.8% in 2020 in the YRD. Although the population-weighted annual mean O concentration in the whole YRD region showed a downward trend, some cities in western Anhui province, northern Jiangsu province, and central Jiangsu province showed fluctuations and even an increasing trend. In terms of health benefits, there were 3782 cases (95% CI:2050-5511 cases) of avoided premature deaths associated with reduced O concentrations in the warm season in 2020 compared to 2017. The total health benefit was 26198 million yuan (95% CI:14201-38175 million yuan). Compared to the cost of the main O precursor emission reduction, the cost-benefits ratio was 1:1.67 to 3.23.
近年来，中国臭氧（O）浓度呈上升趋势，成为仅次于细颗粒物（PM）影响空气质量的重要因素。为掌握长江三角洲（YRD）地区蓝天保卫三年行动计划实施期间O的时空变化特征及其对健康的影响，采用全局莫兰指数和Getis-Ord指数方法分析了2017年至2020年YRD地区210个监测站收集的数据，并运用健康风险和环境价值评估方法评估了降低O暴露所带来的相关健康效益。结果表明，研究期间，年平均O浓度的四分位距（IQR）和暖季的四分位距均呈下降趋势。暖季和冷季的平均O浓度呈现相似的空间分布格局，北部浓度较高，南部浓度较低。此外，暖季O浓度的特征是高浓度聚集在该地区的北部和中部。YRD地区年平均O浓度超过160μg·m³的人口暴露比例从2017年的72.3%降至2020年的34.8%。尽管YRD地区整体的人口加权年平均O浓度呈下降趋势，但安徽省西部、江苏省北部和江苏省中部的一些城市出现了波动甚至上升趋势。在健康效益方面，与2017年相比，2020年暖季因O浓度降低避免了3782例（95%CI：2050 - 5511例）过早死亡。总健康效益为2619.8亿元（95%CI：1420.1 - 3817.5亿元）。与主要O前体减排成本相比，成本效益比为1:1.67至3.23。
