Tracking COVID-19 vaccination expectancies and vaccination refusal in the United States.

To identify factors that predict COVID-19 vaccination refusal and show how expectancies affect vaccination acceptance for non-vaccinated adults, we used a monthly repeated cross-sectional sample from June/2021 to October/2021 to collect data on vaccination behaviors and predictor variables for 2,116 US adults over 50 years of age. Selection bias modeling - which is required when data availability is a result of behavioral choice - predicts two outcomes: (1) no vaccination vs. vaccination for the entire sample and (2) the effects of expectancy indices predicting vaccination Refuser vs. vaccination Accepters for the unvaccinated group. Vaccine refusers were younger and less educated, endorsed common misconceptions about the COVID-19 epidemic, and were Black. Vaccination expectancies were related to vaccination refusal in the unvaccinated eligible group: negative expectancies increased vaccine refusal, while positive expectancies decreased it. We conclude that behavior-related expectancies (as opposed to more stable psychological traits) are important to identify because they are often modifiable and provide a point of intervention, not just for COVID-19 vaccination acceptance but also for other positive health behaviors.