Kaky Emad, Nolan Victoria, Khalil Mohammed I, Ameen Mohammed Ameer M, Ahmed Jaf Aram Afrasiaw, Mohammed-Amin Saman Mohammed, Mahmood Yadgar Ali, Gilbert Francis
Kalar Technical College, Sulaimani Polytechnic University, Qirga District, Sulaymaniyah, Iraq.
School of Life Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Heliyon. 2022 Dec 23;9(2):e12501. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e12501. eCollection 2023 Feb.
Climate is a vital factor that shapes habitat suitability for many species across space and time. (Goitered gazelle) is a globally vulnerable mammal already extinct in some areas of Armenia and Georgia and is highly threatened in other areas of its distribution. In this study, new data were gathered for 33 locations in north-eastern Iraq, and then together with literature data, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) were used to explore the geographical distribution of the gazelle under current and future climate change scenarios. We studied the relationship between seven climate variables and 43 occurrence records to predict habitat suitability of the gazelle under the current climate, and also under four future climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for both 2050 and 2080). Annual precipitation and isothermality had the most influence on the distribution of . The most suitable habitat in both the current and future scenarios was located in north-eastern Iraq close to the Iranian border near the Zagros Mountains. There was no difference in habitat suitability for the gazelle inside Iraqi Protected Areas (PAs) compared to outside the PAs. Using the occurrence records and IUCN Red List national assessments, we found Iraqi Goitered gazelle populations to be classified as Endangered (EN). Our results suggest urgent conservation planning is needed to save this species, including the establishment of new PAs. These results contribute new baseline information, which was currently missing Goitered gazelle in about Iraq, to the IUCN SSC Antelope Specialist Group, which will hopefully aid with future global assessments and conservation.
气候是一个至关重要的因素，它在时空上塑造了许多物种的栖息地适宜性。鹅喉羚是一种全球易危哺乳动物，在亚美尼亚和格鲁吉亚的一些地区已经灭绝，在其分布的其他地区也受到高度威胁。在本研究中，收集了伊拉克东北部33个地点的新数据，然后结合文献数据，使用物种分布模型（SDMs）来探索当前和未来气候变化情景下鹅喉羚的地理分布。我们研究了七个气候变量与43个出现记录之间的关系，以预测当前气候以及四种未来气候情景（2050年和2080年的RCP2.6和RCP8.5）下鹅喉羚的栖息地适宜性。年降水量和等温性对鹅喉羚的分布影响最大。当前和未来情景下最适宜的栖息地都位于伊拉克东北部靠近伊朗边境、靠近扎格罗斯山脉的地方。与伊拉克保护区（PAs）外相比，保护区内鹅喉羚的栖息地适宜性没有差异。利用出现记录和世界自然保护联盟（IUCN）红色名录国家评估，我们发现伊拉克鹅喉羚种群被列为濒危（EN）。我们的结果表明，需要进行紧急保护规划以拯救该物种，包括建立新的保护区。这些结果为世界自然保护联盟羚羊专家组提供了新的基线信息，目前在伊拉克缺少关于鹅喉羚的此类信息，有望有助于未来的全球评估和保护工作。
