Abedin Imon, Mukherjee Tanoy, Abedin Joynal, Kim Hyun-Woo, Kundu Shantanu
Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata 700108, India.
Dibru-Saikhowa Conservation Society, Tinsukia 786147, India.
Biology (Basel). 2024 Aug 27;13(9):667. doi: 10.3390/biology13090667.
Climate change has severely impacted many species, causing rapid declines or extinctions within their essential ecological niches. This deterioration is expected to worsen, particularly in remote high-altitude regions like the Himalayas, which are home to diverse flora and fauna, including many mountainous ungulates. Unfortunately, many of these species lack adaptive strategies to cope with novel climatic conditions. The Red Goral () is a cliff-dwelling species classified as "Vulnerable" by the IUCN due to its small population and restricted range extent. This species has the most restricted range of all goral species, residing in the temperate mountains of northeastern India, northern Myanmar, and China. Given its restricted range and small population, this species is highly threatened by climate change and habitat disruptions, making habitat mapping and modeling crucial for effective conservation. This study employs an ensemble approach (BRT, GLM, MARS, and MaxEnt) in species distribution modeling to assess the distribution, habitat suitability, and connectivity of this species, addressing critical gaps in its understanding. The findings reveal deeply concerning trends, as the model identified only 21,363 km (13.01%) of the total IUCN extent as suitable habitat under current conditions. This limited extent is alarming, as it leaves the species with very little refuge to thrive. Furthermore, this situation is compounded by the fact that only around 22.29% of this identified suitable habitat falls within protected areas (PAs), further constraining the species' ability to survive in a protected landscape. The future projections paint even degraded scenarios, with a predicted decline of over 34% and excessive fragmentation in suitable habitat extent. In addition, the present study identifies precipitation seasonality and elevation as the primary contributing predictors to the distribution of this species. Furthermore, the study identifies nine designated transboundary PAs within the IUCN extent of the Red Goral and the connectivity among them to highlight the crucial role in supporting the species' survival over time. Moreover, the Dibang Wildlife Sanctuary (DWLS) and Hkakaborazi National Park are revealed as the PAs with the largest extent of suitable habitat in the present scenario. Furthermore, the highest mean connectivity was found between DWLS and Mehao Wildlife Sanctuary (0.0583), while the lowest connectivity was observed between Kamlang Wildlife Sanctuary and Namdapha National Park (0.0172). The study also suggests strategic management planning that is a vital foundation for future research and conservation initiatives, aiming to ensure the long-term survival of the species in its natural habitat.
气候变化已对许多物种造成严重影响，导致它们在基本生态位内迅速减少或灭绝。预计这种恶化情况将加剧，尤其是在喜马拉雅山脉等偏远高海拔地区，这里是包括许多山地有蹄类动物在内的各种动植物的家园。不幸的是，这些物种中的许多缺乏应对新气候条件的适应策略。赤斑羚（）是一种栖息在悬崖上的物种，由于其种群数量少和分布范围有限，被国际自然保护联盟列为“易危”物种。该物种在所有斑羚物种中的分布范围最窄，分布于印度东北部、缅甸北部和中国的温带山区。鉴于其分布范围有限和种群数量少，该物种极易受到气候变化和栖息地破坏的威胁，因此栖息地测绘和建模对于有效保护至关重要。本研究在物种分布建模中采用了综合方法（BRT、GLM、MARS和MaxEnt）来评估该物种的分布、栖息地适宜性和连通性，填补对其理解的关键空白。研究结果揭示了令人深感担忧的趋势，因为模型在当前条件下仅将国际自然保护联盟划定的总面积中的21363平方公里（13.01%）确定为适宜栖息地。这一有限的范围令人担忧，因为这使得该物种几乎没有可供繁衍生息的避难所。此外，情况还因以下事实而更加复杂：在确定的适宜栖息地中，只有约22.29%位于保护区内，这进一步限制了该物种在受保护景观中生存的能力。未来预测描绘了更为退化的情景，预计适宜栖息地范围将下降超过34%，且破碎化程度过高。此外，本研究确定降水季节性和海拔是该物种分布的主要影响预测因素。此外，该研究在赤斑羚的国际自然保护联盟划定范围内确定了9个指定的跨界保护区及其之间的连通性，以突出其在长期支持该物种生存方面的关键作用。此外，在当前情景下，迪邦野生动物保护区（DWLS）和哈卡博拉齐国家公园被揭示为适宜栖息地范围最大的保护区。此外，发现DWLS与梅豪野生动物保护区之间的平均连通性最高（0.0583），而卡姆朗野生动物保护区与那木达法国家公园之间的连通性最低（0.0172）。该研究还提出了战略管理规划，这是未来研究和保护举措的重要基础，旨在确保该物种在其自然栖息地中的长期生存。
