Chen Jiaqi, Gu Changgui, Ruan Zhongyuan, Tang Ming
Department of Systems Science, Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200093, China.
Institute of Cyberspace Security, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, 310023, China.
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2023 Apr;169:113193. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113193. Epub 2023 Feb 10.
SARS-CoV-2 has produced various variants during its ongoing evolution. The competitive behavior driven by the co-transmission of these variants has influenced the pandemic transmission dynamics. Therefore, studying the impact of competition between SARS-CoV-2 variants on pandemic transmission dynamics is of considerable practical importance. In order to formalize the mechanism of competition between SARS-CoV-2 variants, we propose an epidemic model that takes into account the co-transmission of competing variants. The model focuses on how cross-immunity influences the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through competitive mechanisms between strains. We found that inter-strain competition affects not only both the final size and the replacement time of the variants, but also the invasive behavior of new variants in the future. Due to the limited extent of cross-immunity in previous populations, we predict that the new strain may infect the largest number of individuals in China without control interventions. Moreover, we also observed the possibility of periodic outbreaks in the same lineage and the possibility of the resurgence of previous lineages. Without the invasion of a new variant, the previous variant (Delta variant) is projected to resurgence as early as 2023. However, its resurgence may be prevented by a new variant with a greater competitive advantage.
严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）在其持续进化过程中产生了多种变体。这些变体共同传播所驱动的竞争行为影响了大流行的传播动态。因此，研究SARS-CoV-2变体之间的竞争对大流行传播动态的影响具有相当重要的实际意义。为了规范SARS-CoV-2变体之间的竞争机制，我们提出了一个考虑竞争变体共同传播的流行病模型。该模型重点关注交叉免疫如何通过毒株之间的竞争机制影响SARS-CoV-2的传播动态。我们发现毒株间竞争不仅影响变体的最终规模和替代时间，还影响未来新变体的入侵行为。由于先前人群中交叉免疫的程度有限，我们预测在没有控制干预的情况下，新毒株可能在中国感染最多的个体。此外，我们还观察到同一谱系中周期性爆发的可能性以及先前谱系复苏的可能性。如果没有新变体的入侵，先前的变体（德尔塔变体）预计最早在2023年复苏。然而，具有更大竞争优势的新变体可能会阻止其复苏。
