用于预测卢旺达防控措施影响的新冠疫情数学模型分析
Analysis of COVID-19 mathematical model for predicting the impact of control measures in Rwanda.
作者信息
Mpinganzima Lydie, Ntaganda Jean Marie, Banzi Wellars, Muhirwa Jean Pierre, Nannyonga Betty Kivumbi, Niyobuhungiro Japhet, Rutaganda Eric
机构信息
Department of Mathematics, University of Rwanda, P.O. Box 3900, Kigali, Rwanda.
Department of Mathematics, School of Physical Sciences, College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University, P.O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda.
出版信息
Inform Med Unlocked. 2023;37:101195. doi: 10.1016/j.imu.2023.101195. Epub 2023 Feb 13.
This paper shows the impact of control measures on the predictive COVID-19 mathematical model in Rwanda through sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number . We have introduced different levels of the control measures in the model, precisely, 90%, 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%, 0% and studied their effects on the variation of the model variables. The results from numerical simulations reveal that the more the adherence to the control measures at the percentage of 90%, 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%, 0%, the more the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalized and deaths reduces which indicates the reduction of the spread of the pandemic in Rwanda. Moreover, It was shown that the transition rate from the infectious compartment is very sensitive to as the increase/decrease in its value increases/decreases the value of and this leads to the high spread or the containment of the pandemic respectively.
本文通过对基本再生数的敏感性分析，展示了控制措施对卢旺达COVID-19预测数学模型的影响。我们在模型中引入了不同水平的控制措施，具体为90%、80%、60%、40%、20%、0%，并研究了它们对模型变量变化的影响。数值模拟结果表明，在90%、80%、60%、40%、20%、0%的百分比水平上，对控制措施的遵守程度越高，COVID-19病例、住院人数和死亡人数减少得就越多，这表明卢旺达大流行病的传播得到了控制。此外，研究表明，感染区的转移率对基本再生数非常敏感，因为其值的增加/减少会导致基本再生数的值增加/减少，这分别导致了大流行病的高传播或得到控制。
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