Department of Geography, Urban and Regional Planning, Universidad de Cantabria, 39005, Santander, Spain.
Research Group on Health Economics and Health Services Management - Valdecilla Biomedical Research Institute (IDIVAL), 39011, Santander, Spain.
J Urban Health. 2023 Apr;100(2):314-326. doi: 10.1007/s11524-023-00720-3. Epub 2023 Feb 24.
This study focuses on the space-time patterns of the COVID-19 Omicron wave at a regional scale, using municipal data. We analyze the Basque Country and Cantabria, two adjacent regions in the north of Spain, which between them numbered 491,816 confirmed cases in their 358 municipalities from 15th November 2021 to 31st March 2022. The study seeks to determine the role of functional urban areas (FUAs) in the spread of the Omicron variant of the virus, using ESRI Technology (ArcGIS Pro) and applying intelligence location methods such as 3D-bins and emerging hot spots. Those methods help identify trends and types of problem area, such as hot spots, at municipal level. The results demonstrate that FUAs do not contain an over-concentration of COVID-19 cases, as their location coefficient is under 1.0 in relation to population. Nevertheless, FUAs do have an important role as drivers of spread in the upward curve of the Omicron wave. Significant hot spot patterns are found in 85.0% of FUA area, where 98.9% of FUA cases occur. The distribution of cases shows a spatially stationary linear correlation linked to demographically progressive areas (densely populated, young profile, and with more children per woman) which are well connected by highways and railroads. Based on this research, the proposed GIS methodology can be adapted to other case studies. Considering geo-prevention and WHO Health in All Policies approaches, the research findings reveal spatial patterns that can help policymakers in tackling the pandemic in future waves as society learns to live with the virus.
本研究以区域尺度为重点，使用市级数据研究 COVID-19 奥密克戎波的时空模式。我们分析了巴斯克地区和坎塔布里亚地区，这两个地区位于西班牙北部，在 2021 年 11 月 15 日至 2022 年 3 月 31 日期间，它们的 358 个市共有 491816 例确诊病例。本研究旨在使用 ESRI 技术（ArcGIS Pro）和应用 3D -bin 和新兴热点等智能定位方法，确定功能城市区域（FUAs）在奥密克戎变异病毒传播中的作用。这些方法有助于在市级水平上识别趋势和问题区域类型，如热点。研究结果表明，FUAs 并没有集中大量的 COVID-19 病例，因为它们的位置系数与人口相比低于 1.0。然而，FUAs 在奥密克戎波的上升曲线上确实具有重要的传播驱动作用。在 85.0%的 FUAs 区域中发现了显著的热点模式，其中 98.9%的 FUAs 病例发生在此类区域。病例的分布显示出与人口统计学上不断发展的区域（人口密集、年轻、每个妇女的孩子较多）相关的空间稳定线性相关性，这些区域通过高速公路和铁路紧密相连。基于这项研究，所提出的 GIS 方法可以适用于其他案例研究。考虑到地理预防和世卫组织的“所有政策都促进健康”方法，本研究的发现揭示了空间模式，可以帮助政策制定者在未来的疫情浪潮中应对疫情，因为社会正在学会与病毒共存。
