Ren Siyu, Du Mingyue, Bu Wenchao, Lin Tao
School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China; Center for Transnationals' Studies of Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China.
School of Economics, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing, 100048, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Jun 15;336:117618. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117618. Epub 2023 Mar 9.
In the context of the goal of "carbon neutrality", an economic development model that achieves emission reduction goals and ensures stable economic growth is currently being advocated by China. Based on provincial panel data in China from 2005 to 2016, we analyse the impact of economic growth target (EGT) constraints on environmental pollution using a spatial econometric method. The results indicate that EGT constraints significantly exacerbate environmental pollution in local regions and adjacent areas. Local governments are motivated to achieve economic growth goals at the expense of the ecological environment. The positive effects are attributed to a reduction in environmental regulation (ER), industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation and an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI). Moreover, environmental decentralization (ED) plays a positive regulatory role and can weaken the adverse influences of EGT constraints on environmental pollution. Interestingly, the nonlinear impact of EGT constraints on environmental pollution relies on different types of ED. Environmental administration decentralization (EDA) and environmental supervision decentralization (EDS) can reduce the positive effect of EGT constraints on environmental pollution, while an improvement in environmental monitoring decentralization (EDM) can increase the promoting influences of the constraints of economic growth goals on environmental pollution. The above conclusions still hold under a series of robustness tests. Based on the above findings, we suggest that local governments set scientific growth targets, establish scientific assessment indicators for officials, and optimize the ED management institution.
在“碳中和”目标背景下，中国目前正在倡导一种实现减排目标并确保经济稳定增长的经济发展模式。基于2005年至2016年中国省级面板数据，我们运用空间计量方法分析经济增长目标（EGT）约束对环境污染的影响。结果表明，EGT约束显著加剧了本地区及相邻地区的环境污染。地方政府有以牺牲生态环境为代价来实现经济增长目标的动机。其积极影响归因于环境规制（ER）的减少、产业结构升级、技术创新以及外国直接投资（FDI）的增加。此外，环境分权（ED）发挥着积极的监管作用，能够削弱EGT约束对环境污染的不利影响。有趣的是，EGT约束对环境污染的非线性影响依赖于不同类型的ED。环境行政分权（EDA）和环境监督分权（EDS）能够降低EGT约束对环境污染的积极影响，而环境监测分权（EDM）的改善则会增强经济增长目标约束对环境污染的促进影响。上述结论在一系列稳健性检验下仍然成立。基于上述研究结果，我们建议地方政府设定科学的增长目标，建立科学的官员考核指标，并优化ED管理制度。
