Shen Linlin, Deng Haiyan, Zhang Ganglong, Ma Anqi, Mo Xiaoyong
College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China.
Guangzhou Institute of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, Guangzhou 510405, China.
Plants (Basel). 2023 Feb 6;12(4):717. doi: 10.3390/plants12040717.
Climate warming poses a great threat to ecosystems worldwide, which significantly affects the geographical distribution and suitable growth area of species. Taking Miq. as the research object, the potentially suitable cultivation regions under present and future climatic emission scenarios in China were predicted based on the MaxEnt model with 360 effective individual distributions and eight environmental variables. The min temperature of coldest month (bio6), precipitation of driest month (bio14), and precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) are three leading factors affecting the geographical distribution area of Miq. The suitable cultivation regions of Miq. range from 18°-34° N, 89°-122° E in central and southern China and cover an area of 261.95 × 10 km. The spatial pattern of Miq. will migrate to the southern region of low latitudes with a decreasing suitable area when in ssp1-2.6, and to the southwestern region of low latitudes or expand to the northeast region at high latitudes in ssp5-8.5, with an increasing suitable area; no significant change on the spatial pattern in ssp2-2.4. For ssp1-2.6 or ssp2-4.5 climate scenarios, the southern region of high latitudes will be appropriate for introducing and cultivating Miq., and the cultivation area will increase. For ssp5-8.5, its cultivation will increase and expand to the northeast of high-latitude areas slightly.
气候变暖对全球生态系统构成了巨大威胁，这显著影响了物种的地理分布和适宜生长区域。以[物种名称未给出，推测为某种植物，暂用“Miq.”指代]为研究对象，基于具有360个有效个体分布和八个环境变量的MaxEnt模型，预测了中国当前和未来气候排放情景下潜在的适宜种植区域。最冷月最低温度（bio6）、最干月降水量（bio14）和最暖季降水量（bio18）是影响Miq.地理分布区域的三个主要因素。Miq.的适宜种植区域在中国中部和南部北纬18° - 34°、东经89° - 122°之间，面积为261.95×10平方千米。在ssp1 - 2.6情景下，Miq.的空间格局将向低纬度南部地区迁移，适宜面积减小；在ssp5 - 8.5情景下，将向低纬度西南部地区迁移或扩展到高纬度东北部地区，适宜面积增加；在ssp2 - 2.4情景下，空间格局无显著变化。对于ssp1 - 2.6或ssp2 - 4.5气候情景，高纬度南部地区将适合引种和种植Miq.，种植面积将增加。对于ssp5 - 8.5情景，其种植面积将增加并略微扩展到高纬度地区的东北部。
