Dang Guofeng, Li Guibin, Hu Jinzhou
School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, 730070, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 1;15(1):20789. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-08876-5.
In the context of carbon peak and energy structure transformation, ecosystem service bundle(ESB) have obvious changes. As a typical ecologically fragile area in China, the study of ESB in Shanxi Province plays a significant effect in regional sustainable development and ecological governance. This paper employs the PLUS model to simulate land use patterns, which utilizes land use data about Shanxi Province for the years 1980, 2000, and 2020. By integrating this with the dynamic ecosystem service value (ESV) model to assess the ESV, the evolutionary trajectory of the ESB is systematically revealed. Additionally, the driving factors behind the changes in ESB are analyzed using geographic detectors. The results indicated that: (1)From 1980 to 2020, the area of cultivated land consistently decreased, while the area of construction land expanded rapidly. By 2040, the area of cultivated land under the NDS is projected to decrease by 4.21%, whereas under the FPS, it is expected to increase by 4.35% due to policy intervention. (2)The total value of ESV exhibited fluctuations in an 'N-type' pattern. From 1980 to 2020, there was an overall decline of 2.05%, but the ESV is projected to rebound by 0.84% in 2040(FPS). (3)The synergistic relationship among ecosystem services was dominant, accounting for 88.79%, yet the trade-off coefficient between FP-CR increased by 23.5% over the past decade, which is underscoring the significant conflict between food production and ecological protection.(4)Three types of ESBs were identified: the agricultural production-leading bundle (ESB1), the ecological regulation-strengthening bundle (ESB2), and the water conservation-sensitive bundle (ESB3).The proportion of stable types reached its peak at 82.91% under the AEDS, highlighting the reinforcing effect of market mechanisms on ecological function lock-in. The research findings can provide valuable decision support for land space optimization in ecologically fragile areas and the value transformation of ecological product.
在碳达峰和能源结构转型背景下，生态系统服务束（ESB）发生了明显变化。山西省作为我国典型的生态脆弱区，对其生态系统服务束的研究对区域可持续发展和生态治理具有重要意义。本文运用PLUS模型模拟土地利用格局，该模型利用了山西省1980年、2000年和2020年的土地利用数据。通过将其与动态生态系统服务价值（ESV）模型相结合来评估生态系统服务价值，系统地揭示了生态系统服务束的演化轨迹。此外，利用地理探测器分析了生态系统服务束变化背后的驱动因素。结果表明：（1）1980年至2020年，耕地面积持续减少，建设用地面积迅速扩大。到2040年，在自然发展情景（NDS）下耕地面积预计减少4.21%，而在政策调控情景（FPS）下，由于政策干预预计将增加4.35%。（2）生态系统服务价值总量呈“N”型波动。1980年至2020年总体下降了2.05%，但预计到2040年（FPS）生态系统服务价值将反弹0.84%。（3）生态系统服务之间的协同关系占主导，占比88.79%，但过去十年间粮食生产与生态调节（FP-CR）之间的权衡系数增加了23.5%，凸显了粮食生产与生态保护之间的显著冲突。（4）识别出三种类型的生态系统服务束：农业生产主导型服务束（ESB1）、生态调节增强型服务束（ESB2）和水源涵养敏感型服务束（ESB3）。在适应性生态系统动态情景（AEDS）下稳定类型的比例达到峰值82.91%，凸显了市场机制对生态功能锁定的强化作用。研究结果可为生态脆弱区土地空间优化和生态产品价值转化提供有价值的决策支持。
