International Monetary Fund. 700 19th St NW, Washington, DC 20431, United States.
J Health Econ. 2023 Mar;88:102721. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102721. Epub 2023 Feb 26.
We quantify the effect of statewide mask mandates in the United States in 2020. Our regression discontinuity design exploits county-level variation in COVID-19 outcomes across the border between states with and without mandates. State mask mandates reduced new weekly COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by 55, 11, and 0.7 per 100,000 inhabitants on average. The effect depends on political leaning with larger effects in Democratic-leaning counties. Our results imply that statewide mandates saved 87,000 lives through December 19, 2020, while a nationwide mandate could have saved 57,000 additional lives. This suggests that mask mandates can help counter pandemics, particularly if widely accepted.
我们量化了 2020 年美国全州范围口罩令的效果。我们的回归不连续性设计利用了各州之间存在和不存在口罩令的县际 COVID-19 结果差异。州口罩令平均使每 10 万人的新每周 COVID-19 病例、住院人数和死亡人数减少了 55、11 和 0.7。该效果取决于政治倾向，在倾向民主的县效果更大。我们的结果表明，截至 2020 年 12 月 19 日，全州范围的口罩令挽救了 87000 条生命，而全国范围内的口罩令本可以额外挽救 57000 条生命。这表明口罩令可以帮助对抗大流行，特别是如果被广泛接受的话。
