Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801.
PRO-Dairy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853.
J Dairy Sci. 2023 May;106(5):3301-3311. doi: 10.3168/jds.2022-22711. Epub 2023 Mar 2.
Given the revenue and cost volatility with resulting tight profit margins in dairy farming, it is increasingly important to measure, monitor, and understand farm financial risk. Solvency, liquidity, debt repayment capacity, and financial efficiency measures can reveal potential problem areas and assist in financial risk management. Financial risk is defined as uncertainty about interest rates, willingness of lender to keep or put money into the business, ability to meet cash flow needs, and the market value of collateral. Financial resilience is defined as the ability to withstand events that impact firm net income. Solvency was measured by equity to asset ratio. Liquidity was measured by current ratio. Repayment capacity was measured by debt coverage ratio. Financial efficiency was measured by operational expense ratio and net farm income ratio. Critical thresholds for these farm financial measures include those determined by US agricultural lenders since maintaining access to outside capital is important for farm financial management. To demonstrate these concepts and measure financial risk and resilience, this research uses farm data from a balanced panel of 105 New York dairy farms from 2010 through 2019. Results reveal that there were 4 average, 2 good, and 4 poor financial years for these operations on average as measured by farm profitability. Solvency positions were relatively stable being based on long-term asset and liability values. During the poor years, the percent of farms below danger thresholds for liquidity and debt repayment capacity spiked.
鉴于奶牛养殖的收入和成本波动性导致利润率紧张，衡量、监测和了解农场财务风险变得越来越重要。偿债能力、流动性、偿债能力和财务效率衡量标准可以揭示潜在的问题领域，并有助于进行财务风险管理。财务风险是指对利率、贷款方是否愿意保留或投入资金、满足现金流需求的能力以及抵押品的市场价值的不确定性。财务弹性是指承受影响企业净利润的事件的能力。偿债能力通过股本与资产比率衡量。流动性通过流动比率衡量。偿债能力通过债务覆盖率衡量。财务效率通过运营费用比率和净农场收入比率衡量。这些农场财务衡量标准的关键阈值包括美国农业贷款机构确定的阈值，因为保持获得外部资金的渠道对农场财务管理很重要。为了演示这些概念并衡量财务风险和弹性，本研究使用了 2010 年至 2019 年来自纽约 105 家奶牛场的平衡面板数据。结果表明，这些农场的平均盈利情况平均有 4 个普通、2 个良好和 4 个较差的财务年度。偿债能力状况相对稳定，基于长期资产和负债价值。在困难时期，流动性和偿债能力低于危险阈值的农场比例急剧上升。
