Degli Esposti Michelle, Coll Carolina V N, da Silva Eduardo Viegas, Borges Doriam, Rojido Emiliano, Gomes Dos Santos Alisson, Cano Ignacio, Murray Joseph
Human Development and Violence Research Centre, Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil.
Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, Department of Social Medicine, Federal University of Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brazil.
Lancet Reg Health Am. 2023 Feb 21;19:100447. doi: 10.1016/j.lana.2023.100447. eCollection 2023 Mar.
City-led interventions are increasingly advocated to achieve the UN's Sustainable Development Goal to reduce violence for all. We used a new quantitative evaluation method to examine whether a flagship programme, called the "Pelotas Pact for Peace" (the Pacto), has been effective in reducing violence and crime in the city of Pelotas, Brazil.
We used synthetic control methodology to assess the effects of the Pacto from August 2017 to December 2021, and separately before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Outcomes included monthly rates of homicide and property crime, and yearly rates of assault against women and school drop-out. We constructed synthetic controls (counterfactuals) based on weighted averages from a donor pool of municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul. Weights were identified using pre-intervention outcome trends and confounders (sociodemographics, economics, education, health and development, and drug trafficking).
The Pacto led to an overall 9% reduction in homicide and 7% reduction in robbery in Pelotas. These effects were not uniform across the full post-intervention period as clear effects were only seen during the pandemic period. A 38% reduction in homicide was also specifically associated with the criminal justice strategy of Focussed Deterrence. No significant effects were found for non-violent property crimes, violence against women, and school dropout, irrespective of the post-intervention period.
City-level interventions that combine public health and criminal justice approaches could be effective in tackling violence in Brazil. Continued monitoring and evaluation efforts are increasingly needed as cities are proposed as key opportunities for reducing violence for all.
This research was funded by the Wellcome Trust [grant number: 210735_Z_18_Z].
城市主导的干预措施越来越多地被倡导，以实现联合国的可持续发展目标，即减少针对所有人的暴力行为。我们使用一种新的定量评估方法，来检验一项名为“佩洛塔斯和平公约”（以下简称“公约”）的旗舰项目，在巴西佩洛塔斯市减少暴力和犯罪方面是否有效。
我们使用合成控制法来评估该公约在2017年8月至2021年12月期间的效果，并分别在新冠疫情之前和期间进行评估。结果包括每月的凶杀率和财产犯罪率，以及每年的针对妇女的袭击率和辍学率。我们根据南里奥格兰德州各市捐赠池的加权平均值构建了合成对照组（反事实组）。权重是根据干预前的结果趋势和混杂因素（社会人口统计学、经济、教育、健康与发展以及毒品贩运）确定的。
该公约使佩洛塔斯的凶杀案总体减少了9%，抢劫案减少了7%。这些影响在整个干预后时期并不一致，因为明显的效果只在疫情期间出现。凶杀案减少38%也特别与重点威慑刑事司法战略相关。无论在干预后时期如何，对于非暴力财产犯罪、针对妇女的暴力行为和辍学率均未发现显著影响。
将公共卫生和刑事司法方法相结合的城市层面干预措施，可能在巴西应对暴力方面有效。随着城市被视为减少针对所有人的暴力行为的关键契机，越来越需要持续的监测和评估工作。
本研究由惠康信托基金资助[资助编号：210735_Z_18_Z]。
