Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, WOAH Collaborating Centre in Risk Analysis and Modelling, Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield AL9 7TA, UK.
Communicable Diseases Policy Research Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
J R Soc Interface. 2023 Mar;20(200):20220756. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2022.0756. Epub 2023 Mar 8.
Brucellosis imposes substantial impacts on livestock production and public health worldwide. A stochastic, age-structured model incorporating herd demographics was developed describing within- and between-herd transmission of in dairy cattle herds. The model was fitted to data from a cross-sectional study conducted in Punjab State of India and used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies under consideration. Based on model results, stakeholder acceptance and constraints regarding vaccine supply, vaccination of replacement calves in large farms should be prioritized. Test and removal applied at early stages of the control programme where seroprevalence is high would not constitute an effective or acceptable use of resources because significant numbers of animals would be 'removed' (culled or not used for breeding) based on false positive results. To achieve sustained reductions in brucellosis, policymakers must commit to maintaining vaccination in the long term, which may eventually reduce frequency of infection in the livestock reservoir to a low enough level for elimination to be a realistic objective. This work provides key strategic insights into the control of brucellosis in India, which has the largest cattle population globally, and a general modelling framework for evaluating control strategies in endemic settings.
布鲁氏菌病对全球的畜牧业生产和公共卫生造成了重大影响。本研究建立了一个包含畜群结构的随机、年龄结构模型，用于描述奶牛场内部和场间布鲁氏菌的传播。该模型拟合了在印度旁遮普邦进行的横断面研究的数据，并用于评估所考虑的控制策略的有效性。基于模型结果，考虑到疫苗供应、大型农场中后备牛的接种等利益相关者的接受程度和限制因素，应优先对后备牛进行疫苗接种。在控制计划的早期阶段，针对高血清阳性率进行检测和淘汰将不是资源的有效或可接受的利用，因为大量动物将基于假阳性结果被“淘汰”（淘汰或不用于繁殖）。为了实现布鲁氏菌病的持续减少，政策制定者必须承诺长期进行疫苗接种，这最终可能会将牲畜储存中的感染频率降低到足以实现消除的低水平。这项工作为印度布鲁氏菌病的控制提供了关键的战略见解，印度拥有全球最大的牛群，并且为评估流行地区的控制策略提供了一般的建模框架。
