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气候、景观和生活史共同预测了数十年的蚊虫群落物候。

Climate, landscape, and life history jointly predict multidecadal community mosquito phenology.

机构信息

Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, IFAS, University of Florida, 200 9th St SE, Vero Beach, FL, 32962, USA.

Preventative Medicine Biostatistics Department, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, 20814, USA.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Mar 8;13(1):3866. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-30751-4.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-30751-4
PMID:36890171
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9995322/
Abstract

Phenology of adult host-seeking female mosquitoes is a critical component for understanding potential for vector-borne pathogen maintenance and amplification in the natural environment. Despite this importance, long-term multi-species investigations of mosquito phenologies across environments and differing species' life history traits are rare. Here we leverage long-term mosquito control district monitoring data to characterize annual phenologies of 7 host-seeking female mosquito species over a 20-year time period in suburban Illinois, USA. We also assembled data on landscape context, categorized into low and medium development, climate variables including precipitation, temperature and humidity, and key life history traits, i.e. overwintering stage and Spring-Summer versus Summer-mid-Fallseason fliers. We then fit linear mixed models separately for adult onset, peak abundances, and flight termination with landscape, climate and trait variables as predictors with species as a random effect. Model results supported some expectations, including warmer spring temperatures leading to earlier onset, warmer temperatures and lower humidity leading to earlier peak abundances, and warmer and wetter fall conditions leading to later termination. However, we also found sometimes complex interactions and responses contrary to our predictions. For example, temperature had generally weak support on its own, impacting onset and peak abundance timing; rather temperature has interacting effects with humidity or precipitation. We also found higher spring precipitation, especially in low development contexts, generally delayed adult onset, counter to expectations. These results emphasize the need to consider how traits, landscape and climatic factors all interact to determine mosquito phenology, when planning management strategies for vector control and public health protection.

摘要

成蚊的物候学是理解在自然环境中病原体维持和放大的潜在能力的关键组成部分。尽管这很重要,但在不同环境和不同物种生活史特征下对蚊子物候进行长期多物种调查的情况很少。在这里,我们利用长期蚊虫控制区监测数据,描述了美国伊利诺伊州郊区 20 年来 7 种吸血雌蚊的年度物候学特征。我们还收集了景观背景数据,分为低开发和中开发两类,以及气候变量,包括降水、温度和湿度,和关键的生活史特征,即越冬阶段和春夏季与夏末至秋季飞行者。然后,我们分别用线性混合模型来拟合成虫出现、高峰期和飞行结束的时间,以景观、气候和特征变量作为预测因子,以物种作为随机效应。模型结果支持了一些预期,包括春季温度升高导致成虫出现时间提前,温度升高和湿度降低导致高峰期提前,以及秋季温暖和潮湿条件导致成虫飞行结束时间推迟。然而,我们也发现了一些与我们的预测相反的复杂相互作用和反应。例如,温度本身的支持作用较弱,仅影响成虫出现和高峰期的时间;相反,温度与湿度或降水有相互作用。我们还发现,春季降水较多,特别是在低开发地区,通常会延迟成虫的出现,这与预期相反。这些结果强调了在规划蚊虫控制和公共卫生保护的管理策略时,需要考虑特征、景观和气候因素如何相互作用来确定蚊子的物候学。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/55cf/9995322/cdee6489d58f/41598_2023_30751_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/55cf/9995322/c0ef2aac2019/41598_2023_30751_Fig1_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/55cf/9995322/cdee6489d58f/41598_2023_30751_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/55cf/9995322/c0ef2aac2019/41598_2023_30751_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/55cf/9995322/53a534e22e89/41598_2023_30751_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/55cf/9995322/994dc25ad7b0/41598_2023_30751_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/55cf/9995322/159703926177/41598_2023_30751_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/55cf/9995322/cdee6489d58f/41598_2023_30751_Fig5_HTML.jpg

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